I wanted to mention one more thing in connection with the monograph I mentioned. I was struck by the narrative just how much in a little over 60 years the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and, by extension, the entire Middle East has changed. Their societies have moved hundreds of years in a little more than a generation. More than a little destabilizing.
Personalize that a little bit. More than half of the population in the Middle East is under 24. As far as they know things have always been much as they are.
But the decision makers, the rulers and governors, are mostly over 50-ish or over. That includes someone like Osama bin Laden and his inside circle. The world of today must be enormously different from the world they grew up in. That must be quite frightening.
And what a gulf between them and the young!
The gulf and boom of youth in the Arab world is quite scary considering the failure of Arab governments to provide opportunity for them to earn a living and build a future.
Here’s a relevant quote from one of the more interesting essays I’ve read in the last year:
http://www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190,NI_0905_Arab-P1,00.html
“Economic stagnation coupled with rapid population growth is reducing living standards throughout the region, both comparatively and in real terms. In the heady days of the late 1970s oil boom, annual per-capita GDP growth of over 5% fueled high levels of expectations. GDP per-capita grew from $1,845 to $2,300. Today, after adjusting for inflation, it stands at $1,500, reflecting an overall decline in living standards over 30 years. Only sub-Saharan Africa has done worse. If oil wealth is subtracted from the calculations the economic picture for the mass of Arab citizens becomes dire.”
“The percentage of the population under age 15 is double that of Western Europe and those under age 24 make up 50% to 65% of Middle East countries—an astonishingly young population. This youth bulge is already beginning to rock the foundations of Islamic society. Upheaval and revolution are the likely results of a massive number of youth confronted by stagnating or collapsing economies as they enter adulthood.”
Andy, at least the Gulf States are using their new-found money to create jobs, diversify their economies, and–at long last–create useful education systems.
Too, if oil prices remain above $50/bbl, the GDP figures are going to make a turn-around. It wasn’t only explosive population growth that tanked the GDP, it was also oil selling at $10/bbl. In the 70s, it was $25/bbl. Taking a 150% hit on your national income has a way of depressing GDP.
Rapid population growth (closely correlated to low levels of educational attainment for women) has a way of reducing per capita GDP, too.
John,
Those are good points. However, an endemic problem with many of the Arab states is that during flush times they tend to squander their money. With the notable exceptions (as you rightly mentioned) of some of the Gulf States, particularly the UAE, oil money is not turned into long-term investments like education. Nor is it saved and invested in more liquid assets to smooth the inevitable price fluctuations. Perhaps this has changed in recent years? You are much more familiar with the KSA than I – I wonder what your opinion is of their fiscal discipline and responsibility. I’ve always wondered why Saudi Arabia appears to place so little emphasis on education and employment for its youth.
I know it’s a bit off topic, but I’d also really be interested in your opinion of the article I linked above.