Here in Chicago we are being absolutely deluged with television spots for the Illinois governor’s race, either from sitting Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn or Bruce Rauner, the Republican challenger. The most recent Chicago Tribune poll says it’s close:
With less than two weeks until Election Day, the race for Illinois governor is a dead heat as Republican challenger Bruce Rauner has made significant inroads among suburban voters, especially women, a new Chicago Tribune poll shows.
The survey found Rauner with 45 percent support and Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn with 43 percent. That’s within the poll’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error. Little-known Libertarian candidate Chad Grimm had 4 percent, while only 7 percent were undecided ahead of the Nov. 4 election.
The findings represent a sharp turnaround from a similar survey conducted Sept. 3-12 that found Quinn with an 11 percentage point advantage over Rauner. The governor’s race has tightened as voters become more focused on the campaign and both sides bombard the airwaves with tens of millions of dollars’ worth of negative attack ads on television, radio and newspaper websites. A single Chicago TV station, ABC-7, reported that more than $565,000 was being spent this week to air nearly 300 commercials.
During the past six weeks, the most significant change came from voters in the traditionally Republican-leaning collar counties that surround Cook County. Last month, Rauner held a narrow collar-county advantage over Quinn — 44 percent to 39 percent. But the latest survey showed Rauner now capturing two-thirds of collar-county voters.
The poll is largely meaningless since it is poll of registered voters rather than likely voters. The only aspect of it that’s interesting is the trend which certainly doesn’t look good for Quinn.
I anticipate that turnout will be quite low. I’ll be surprised if it’s as low as the 16% turnout in the primaries but I wouldn’t be surprised at 20% turnout.
The lower the turnout in Chicago and suburban Cook County the greater Gov. Quinn’s chances of re-election. Conversely, the lower that turnout and the greater the turnout in west suburban DuPage County, still a Republican stronghold, the greater Bruce Rauner’s chances of defeating him.
I’m tuning out of the Governor’s race, probably one of the most negative campaigns I can recall. I heard that in the last debate neither candidate answered a single question; they responded to the questioner’s pauses by reciting soundbites.
Probably important that the Green Party did not get on the ballot, but the libertarians did.
The IL Congressional races look like a possible 2 seat pick-up for Rs in the House. The Democrats do not appear to be picking-up a Democratic-leaning district in Central Illinois that I thought was a good possibility.
For those readers who aren’t Illinoisans, the Republicans would need to take control of a dozen more seats in the Illinois House to take control of that house of the legislature. The only importance I would place on a two-seat pickup is that the members of the Illinois House don’t want to vote on anything in the least controversial as it is and two more Republican seats will make it that much harder to pass anything of substance.
@Dave, I was referencing picking up two seats in the U.S. Congress. I’m not sure how significant that is in the vast scheme of things either, but Democrat designs to take back the U.S. House usually assume picking up one or two seats in Illinois, where there is some favorable districting.
Looking closer at the poll, Quinn is really getting walloped in the Collar Counties, and Rauner is way underperforming where he needs to be in Downstate. I doubt a Republican can win statewide with only 50% of downstate support.
I’m skeptical of the poll because it’s of registered voters. That means that all other things being equal in all likelihood 4 out of 5 of those polled won’t be voting.
but Democrat designs to take back the U.S. House usually assume picking up one or two seats in Illinois, where there is some favorable districting.
So next time they can assume picking up three or four seats!
in all likelihood 4 out of 5 of those polled won’t be voting
Yes, but which 4 out of 5 choose to stay home is still important.
If you can extrapolate from the voter enthusiasm polls, the poll of registered voters probably exaggerates the support for Quinn.
It’s not registered voters: “The APC Research poll was conducted Oct. 16 through Tuesday with live landline and cellphone interviews of 800 registered voters who said they were certain to vote or had taken advantage of early voting.” The previous Trib poll was simply registered voters, so there may or may not be a trend.