A Step At A Time quotes another article from George Friedman this time analyzing how the strategy of reverse nuclear deterrence is played by countries like North Korea and Iran. It’s a game with rules:
- The world must know you have a secret nuclear weapons development program. What good is a program that’s really a secret?
- Foreigners must believe that the annihilation of your country is a matter of complete indifference to you.
- Play the game of nuclear brinksmanship cannily. If you actually convince other countries that you’re about to launch a nuclear attack, the jig is up.
The obvious counter-strategem, of course, is to be a nuclear power with the ability to obliterate the countries playing this game and convince opponents playing this game that you’re indifferent as to whether their countries continue to exist or not. Actually being indifferent would be an enormous asset in selling this idea.
This may give us an idea on what the various roles and responsibilities in the six-party talks are (and why there must be six-party talks).
In the case of Iran it’s unimaginable at this point that the Europeans would be able to adopt this counter-strategem convincingly. And the United States suffers under the handicap that it actually cares whether Iran continues to exist at the very least for reasons of both domestic and global politicals.
The only available alternatives appear to be to continue to give the world’s worst oppressors whatever they want and continue what they’re doing or to change the rules of the game. For that we must be a lot more adroit than we have been recently.
Read the whole article. Get it while it’s hot!
UPDATE: Neo-Neocon and Sebastian Holsclaw at Obsidian Wings have comments on North Korean nuclear disarmament talks.
