Reuters reports that the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces have struck an agreement with the Syrian government to oppose a Turkish invasion of their territory:
BEIRUT/AMMAN (Reuters) – The Syrian army will deploy along the length of the border with Turkey in an agreement with the Kurdish-led administration in northern Syria to help repel a Turkish offensive, the Kurdish-led administration said on Sunday.
The army deployment would support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in countering “this aggression and liberating the areas that the Turkish army and mercenaries had enteredâ€, it said, in reference to Turkey-backed Syrian rebels.
It would also allow for the liberation of other Syrian cities occupied by the Turkish army such as Afrin, the statement said. The Turkish army and its Syrian rebel allies drove Kurdish forces from Afrin in 2018.
It seems to me that this is precisely the sort of agreement that we should welcome. Note, too, that it signals the likelihood of the preservation of a multi-ethnic state in Syria, again something we should welcome.
Interesting, isn’t this what the president was calling for – the region’s own players to step up and provide solutions and mutually reached agreements addressing their own problems?
Now imagine we had a disciplined, competent POTUS who realized that he doesn’t know more about the Middle East than the generals and many others. Who doesn’t just act on impulse, and advice from Fox News. Suppose they had at least told the Kurds what was going to happen and gave them a couple of weeks or a month to plan. Maybe we dont have the dozens of deaths we have already.
Trump telegraphed this in January — when he “announced†and then “cancelled†the withdrawal under “pressure� And then months later he goes through with his stated intent when nothing changes.
It is a standard MO of his. Also used in withdrawing from the Iran deal, the Jerusalem as capital, and maybe DACA.
If everyone in Washington, the Central Command, and the think tanks did not remember seeing this type of play before; it boggles my mind.
The only thing I could think of causing such amnesia is the only solution to the Turks vs Kurds besides more US troops is to advise the Kurds to work with Assad / Iran / Russia, all unspeakable actions for big parts of the US foreign policy establishment and administration.
“It is a standard MO of his.”
The MO is that he says he will do something, then doesn’t, and then SOMETIMES ends up doing it. I think it is pretty hard for the White House and Central Command to know when he “really means it this time”. It would be much easier for them, and less chaotic, if he could just lead and make actual plans.
Steve
My response is I think many policy makers (they are smart enough) in Washington understood what would happen since Jan; but the inaction is because there was no solution that didn’t involve more US troops.
It goes back to my second point. Even if you know US troops are gone in 10 months. What viable plan exists but to work with the Assad, Iran and Russia?
This deal has been on the table for over a year. The Kurds acceptance reality is long over due.
But, now the real fun begins. Turkey is still committed to occupying the buffer zone, and it is probable that Turkey and Syria will come into direct conflict. Kobane, Raqqa, and the region in between seems the likely first flash point.
Such a conflict would make life miserable for Russia and Iran, since they are sorta, kinda allies of both. Putin has already said Russia will not get involved. Will Iran and Hezbollah fight the Turks?
The Kurds have apparently released some captured ISIS fighters to add to the fun.
The whole region keeps sliding towards a major regional war that no one wants, and it seems no one can prevent. We saw this kind of scenario play out in the summer of 1914.
You’re saying that as though it were a bad thing.
I forgot to include it, but Col. MacGregor predicted this. Apparently, the US is still blocking the landbridge between Iran and Lebanon/Hezbollah, and if the US pulls out, the rebels will need to make a deal with somebody. Whomever that somebody is, the other somebodies will not be happy.
Col. Lang has a few good posts about the situation.
Trump promised to get out of Syria and but all he’s done here is move US forces within the country to allow the Turks to enter and occupy part of Syria. So the idea that this move was “projected” back in January doesn’t make much sense.
I’ve seen no indications that the BOG limit (Boots on the Ground) has changed or that we’re pulling out of Syria. But who knows, Trump could tweet out some new policy at any time.
Whatever the end goal is, deliberate planning and preparation are essential – something that Trump has shown no capacity for in foreign affairs.
“Col. Lang has a few good posts about the situation.”
Lang is in almost full on support Trump mode. Disappointing. I knew he was solidly behind Trump on domestic issues. He is now going out of his way to defend Trump on most foreign issues, with just occasional criticism. Isn’t it odd that neither he nor anyone in his group have commented on Trump sending troops to KSA? After all of his support for the Houthis we get silence when Trump sells our troops to help KSA.
Steve