The Econometric Models, October 2019

The econometric models of the 2020 election, Moody’s three models and the Fair Model, both predict a Trump electoral landslide. They have been highly reliable for the last 40 years.

A lot can happen between now November 2020. Nothing is a given. But hoping for an economic downturn isn’t a good look for Democrats.

7 comments… add one
  • jan Link

    But, the Democrats want to win at any cost! Just look at how preoccupied they’ve been with first indicting and now impeaching Trump. Nothing else matters. No legislative work is worthy of their time, other than getting rid of this unwanted man.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    All of these long time representatives have oversized egos. And Trump will massage those egos, but only after they are subjugated to his.

    He may win the war, but never win the peace in Washington.
    If he loses public support, it will be because of this.

  • Andy Link

    We are overdue for a recession.

  • Guarneri Link

    “We are overdue for a recession.”

    Recessions don’t have calendars, and don’t read the (funny) papers.

    They are the product of economic realities, and policy. We have some negative stats right now, but we have had before as well. We have some positive stats. There are many who have predicted 4 out of the last 0 recessions, including Trump election Armageddon. Only time will tell.

  • steve Link

    “But, the Democrats want to win at any cost! Just look at how preoccupied they’ve been with first indicting and now impeaching Trump. Nothing else matters.”

    You do realize you vote for the party that actually did impeach someone, over lying about sex? Your party talked about impeaching Obama. Your party had multiple investigations of 3 years or longer of Obama. The Mueller investigation was less than 2 years. You can complain, but you really dont have any standing or credibility.

    “No legislative work is worthy of their time”

    Link goes to the latest legislation passed buy the House. In theory this is something the GOP and Trump would support. I predict the they won’t want to give the Dems a victory. (Little odd as it lists savings over 7 years rather than 10.)


  • jan Link

    Steve, I was a democrat during Clinton’s impeachment. Now, I’m an independent who am totally turned off by the democrat party. As for having one bill on the table, is that a record the Dems should be proud of?

  • steve Link

    And I handed out Goldwater bumper stickers and never voted for any Democrat until Clinton in 92 and not again until 2008. Now I split my votes. But so what? You are a complete Trump supporter. There isn’t anything he does you won’t justify, and what I said still stands. Complaints about the Democrats focusing on impeaching Trump are not credible when the GOP actually did impeach Clinton. Complaints about investigations cant really be taken all that seriously when the GOP had more investigations and they were longer.

    Since you mostly consume right wing media you will be unaware of all o fat either legislation passed by the House and now sitting in the Senate. While many are completely left wing oriented, a number have bipartisan support, like the Yemen bill, the one I linked and a couple others. See link.


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