The CBO Forecast

At RealClearPolicy James Capretta, no fan of big government, apparently concurs with the CBO’s assessment of the impact of the latest tax cut on the budget:

The Congressional Budget Office’s latest forecast makes a convincing case that fiscal complacency is now dangerous for the U.S. economy. CBO projects the federal government will borrow an additional $12.4 trillion over the next 10 years. At the end of 2028, the federal government will have outstanding debt of $28.7 trillion, or 96 percent of GDP. Ten years ago, federal debt was equal to 39 percent of GDP.

In fact, CBO’s official projection is an optimistic scenario. It assumes Congress will let many of the tax-cutting provisions enacted in the recently passed tax legislation expire after 2025. It also assumes, even more implausibly, that the caps on defense and nondefense appropriations for 2020 and 2021 contained in the Budget Control Act of 2011 will remain in place, thus forcing deep cuts in federal spending. However, Congress just enacted a bipartisan agreement to raise the caps in 2018 and 2019 by nearly $300 billion over that two-year period. If the tax cuts are made permanent, and if discretionary appropriations grow with the rate of inflation after 2019, then the budget deficit over the next decade would be $15 trillion instead of the $12.4 trillion contained in CBO’s baseline forecast. In 2028, the annual budget deficit would widen to 7.1 percent of GDP, while total federal debt would reach 105 percent of GDP.

and there is very good reason to believe that so high a debt overhang itself is a drag on economic growth.

Tax cuts are no longer a viable strategy for encouraging economic growth. Our expenses are too high and our debt is too large. Since cutting taxes is the only thing on which Republicans can agree, it sounds as though they’re out of gas.

And here’s the risk posed by our large debt overhang:

If interest rates were to rise sharply and suddenly, lawmakers could find themselves needing to raise taxes or cut spending drastically just to cover spiraling debt service payments.

Interest on the debt is, what, the third largest line item in the budget? That’s a significant risk.

3 comments… add one
  • Andy Link

    It’s crazy.

    “Screw you Millenials!” – Donald Trump and the GoP.

  • steve Link

    And to think they just talked about a balanced budget amendment again. Radically increase the debt, then talk about balance d budgets. Do we call that chutzpah, or what? Anyway, no worries. A Democrat will be elected again sometime and the GOP will go back to being deficit hawks.


  • Gray Shambler Link

    I’ve always assumed that’s why the Fed keeps rates artificially low?
    They control rates, right?
    Seriously, the budget problem is tough because of demographics. It’s being faced around the world. The ageing of the population is a unique situation. Ageing voters with increasing demands on government will have to face reality sooner or later. The problem is us. Half the population cannot be useless eaters or free consumers of healthcare.
    Maybe new technology will help, but down the road, we will need to develop an end of life ethic for ourselves, or it will be imposed upon us out of necessity. Sorry.

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