Taiwan Doesn’t Need Nukes

At 1945 James Holmes explains why Taiwan does not need nuclear weapons to deter China and would be prudent to focus its attentions in other direction:

So, it seems, a nonnuclear onslaught is what Taipei mainly needs to deter. History has shown that nuclear weapons stand little chance of deterring nonnuclear aggression. A threat to visit a Hiroshima or Nagasaki on, say, Shanghai in retaliation for low-level aggression would be implausible. Breaching the nuclear threshold would do little good strategically while painting the islanders as amoral—and hurting their prospects of winning international support in a cross-strait war.

An implausible threat stands little chance of deterring.

It’s something of a relief to read someone arguing along more prudent lines when we’re seeing so much of the opposite these days. Think of it as a “man bites dog” story.

2 comments… add one
  • bob sykes Link

    DSJ, will the Taiwan madness never end. Fifty years ago, in the Shanghai Communiqué, the US agreed that Taiwan was a province of China, and that eventually it would reunited with the mainland. 50 effing years!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Every country that trades with China or has diplomatic relations with has also agreed to the One China policy. Every. Single. One. No. Exceptions.

    Yet we have this unending drum beat for war with China to order to defend an independence we have already agreed does not exist.

    It would almost immediately go nuclear, because China would defeat us/US, and we would pull the nuclear trigger. The Groot problem would cease to exist.

    Truly, we live among lunatics. And they are in charge. The Deep State monsters need a thorough beat down. Aluminum bats with a sweet spot would be my choice.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    The article is missing the bigger point.

    Its not Taiwan that may acquire nuclear weapons; its Japan and South Korea.

    The Chinese government is foolish in not seeing the current geopolitical situation in East Asia is favorable to China and a regional arms race won’t be to its advantage in the long term. The American government is foolish in letting passions go so public; best to prepare privately and say nothing publicly.

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