Sweet Home Farewell, Chicago

Chicago’s population continues to decline. From WTTW:

For the third consecutive year, the Chicago metro area – which includes nine Illinois counties, four in Indiana and one in Wisconsin – saw a drop in population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

In 2017 there were 13,286 fewer residents in the Chicago metro area than in 2016, according to census data. (Last year’s population was 9,533,040. In 2016, the population was 9,546,326.)

Chicago demographer Rob Paral, a principal at Rob Paral and Associates, said it’s small drop. “However, what does stand out is this is not happening in our peer metro areas … New York, L.A., Houston and the Bay Area – they are all growing,” he added. Despite the drop, the Chicago area maintains its spot as the third most populous metropolitan area.

As for what’s causing the population loss, Paral says it’s a “complex stew” of factors that includes race, income and immigration.

“One way to explain the population loss is largely due, in part, to African-Americans leaving. We’ve had a dramatic departure of blacks from Illinois to southern states,” he said, adding the trend has been going on for decades. In addition, he said the Latino population is growing more slowly, while whites are growing in the city but declining in the suburbs.

In a general sort of way what’s happening is that black folk are moving out of the city and the city is gentrifying. That’s no accident. It’s the effective policy of Mayor Emanuel’s administration.

However, nearly every Illinois county has declined in population. That means that nearly every assumption made about the state’s ability to spend is wrong. Returns aren’t as high as the public employee pension funds have assumed. There are fewer Illinoisans now than there were when all of these commitments were made. A smaller tax base will need to support higher spending than anticipated.

Note that the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, J. B. Pritzker has been running on a platform of more spending and higher taxes. I wonder when Illinois’s politicians will finally look at the state’s finances realistically? My guess is just before they announce they’re retiring to Florida.

1 comment… add one
  • Guarneri Link

    I have it on good authority that the real problem is the iron ore boats stopped coming.

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