Status Report

I’m not interested in the Republican primaries. Whatever happens happens. I suspect Romney will be the eventual nominee but a lot depends on how unhinged the Republican base is.

It looks very much as though the whole world is going into recession. Europe and Australia very clearly are. China is equally clearly slowing down and may actually go into recession. I seriously doubt that, if the rest of the world goes into recession, that we can escape it here.

I think that war with Iran is becoming increasingly likely. Iran’s recent overtures for more talks are unlikely to do much; they’ve already poisoned the well. Both the Israelis and the French are pouring cold water on the idea. I honestly don’t know what the Iranians could do at this point to prevent either Israel, the U. S., or both from attacking them.

Unless something more interesting happens today, I think I’ll post about television.

17 comments… add one
  • Icepick Link

    First, what could POSSIBLY be more interesting than television?

    Second, war with Iran could likely produce a recession all by itself, even if the times didn’t already suck.

    Third, I guarantee no recession in the US until after the November election. Obama’s people will NOT allow the reporting of bad statistics until then. Look what they’ve done with the GDP numbers and the unemployment stats. – if it’s bad, it simply does not get counted.

  • First, what could POSSIBLY be more interesting than television?

    Video games and the Ipad3?

  • Icepick Link

    I contend that the Golden Age of video games is almost 30 years in the past, so unless we’re going to be talking about Gauntlet, Tetris and the merits of TRON Disks I’m not interested.

    Also, I’m not an early adopter. And while I can see some utility in tablets, I think their overall utility just isn’t going to pan out. Also, why does Jobs get all the credit for something that was on constant display in ST:TNG 25 years ago?

  • PD Shaw Link

    Dave, are you in the Fifth Congressional District? Santorum apparantly won’t have delegates on the ballot in that district.

  • Maxwell James Link

    Also, why does Jobs get all the credit for something that was on constant display in ST:TNG 25 years ago?

    Not to mention 2001: A Space Odyssey, 42 years ago.

  • Ben Wolf Link

    I don’t expect Obama to be able to run on an improving economy. There’s a high chance of a slowdown in the second quarter, if it isn’t slowing already. There’s no basis for sustained growth when consumers won’t come out of the trenches and spend.

    @Dave Schuler

    Amd as we’ve been arguing for some time, Germany’s export machine model is coming unglued despite the Reich/Krugman fascination with their “economic miracle”.

  • Golden age of video games was almost 30 years ago? Are you mad? Don’t get me wrong, I loved my 8-bit consoles too, and my Atari 800 and Commodore 64, but compare, for instance, Adventure to Skyrim.

  • PD:

    Yeah, 5th Congressional District. Damn. That makes working in the primary election an even bigger waste of time. I wish they’d call the whole thing off.

  • Andy:

    I’m sorely tempted by Skyrim. I’ve just about played Dragon Age 2 to death.

  • Icepick Link

    Maxwell, yes! I saw it recently and realized that, but had forgotten. Thanks for the correction.

    Andy, these home machines have complexity, but they lack the feel of walking into a dark, cool arcade on a hot day with a pocket full of quarters and bad intentions towards the reigning champ of Wizard of Wor. And Xaxxon, and Defender, and Tempest, and … and …. The home consoles justn’t aren’t the same.

    Disney World has something called Disney Quest – it is a multistory game arcade. One level includes something they used to call the Boneyard – it’s all games from the Golden Age. It used to be about the most popular part of the building. A lot of those old games had a great deal of playability, even if they’re primative by current standards.

  • Maxwell James Link

    Icepick – that’s actually why I think the iPad will stick (even though I hate the name). Because our society was dreaming about them long before they were ever brought into reality.

  • PD Shaw Link

    Dave, I guess Santoum’s name will still appear on the ballot, for the “beauty contest” part. He just didn’t get any delegates on the ballot for that district.

    The primary rules seem pretty odd; the Fifth District is reliably Democratic, but whoever wins the District gets three delegates; the same as a District that is reliably Republican. (Although the two most Republican districts get four delegates; and the two least get three delegates) That would appear to weigh urban votes much higher than rural votes (for a change).

  • Ben Wolf Link

    @ Dave Schuler

    I would have thought you more interested in strategy than RPGs.

  • Dave,

    I don’t have Skyrim yet – I need to wait until some power playing won’t result in my kids not getting fed, and the dog not getting let out.


    I remember those games too and I’ve been to Disneyquest a few times. They are, no doubt, good fun.

    An old friend of mine has an original “Black Knight” pinball game and finally beat it a couple of weeks ago.

  • Icepick Link

    Maxwell, I’m sure tablets will stick, I just don’t think they’re the be-all and end-all like so many seem to believe. I want a freakin’ keyboard, for example, and a screen of decent size.

  • TastyBits Link

    @Dave Schuler

    I still do not see anything happening with Iran. I do see that the usual suspects are at it again. Their numbers are dwindling, and they are being questioned more. They are advocating intervention in Syria and possible military action against Iran, and their credibility is thinning considerably.

    The bigger question is: Who or what rattled Israel’s cage? Israel wanted stronger sanctions, and they got them. The present sanctions are having an effect, but Israel now wants military action. I suspect Israel is trying to increase the pressure on Iran. (I still remain unconvinced Israel has the capability.)

    If President Obama requires UN approval, Iran is safe. If the Republican Candidate becomes President, Iran is safe. The world looks a lot different from the Oval Office. Candidate Obama was going to reverse President Bush’ policies, but President Obama continued them. The Republican Candidates are going to reverse President Obama’s policies, but a Republican President will continue them.

    The best objection to military action against Iran is the intelligence. How does the US (Israel) know what it knows? Is there reliable human intelligence, and how was the reliability established? Is Iran bluffing? If everybody believes Iran has or will have nuclear weapons, it is as good as having them. The intel in Iraq was faulty, and it could be faulty in Iran.

    Another objection could be based upon the success of regime change in Syria. Siding with and cheering on the opposition does little to help them. Actively supporting the opposition may not necessarily lead to the desired results – see Libya.

    Most arguments against military action in Iran quickly devolve into a rehash of the Iraq invasion. Unfortunately, the old fault lines will be reestablished. “Bush lied; people died.” “Obama is feckless and does not support Israel.” The result will be many people joining the military action side who otherwise would not. It will quickly devolve into nonsense, and nonsense really should be left to an expert.

    “For the Snark was a Boojum, you see.”

  • @ Dave, @ Andy,

    Skyrim is amazing. But yes, everything else tends not to get done while playing it. First game I’ve ever played for 8 to 10 hours at a stretch. And I stopped playing on weeknights because I was up way, way too late. Not as young as I used to be, lol.

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