State of the Race

Judging from the coverage and commentary I’ve read on last night’s Democratic presidential candidates’ debate, the news outlets are doing their level best to convince themselves Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are winning candidates.

I think they’re wrong both for reasons they have in common and reasons distinct to each. The reasons they have in common are that they’re too old and they’re too far left. Progressives of their stamp represent 51% of the Democratic Party and a lot lower percentage of a country which Gallup just reaffirmed is a center-right country. They each represent states that are among the whitest in the Union and the best educated states in the Union. Neither one of them has any skills or experience that would lead one to conclude that they’d make good presidents. Finally, incumbency is very, very powerful.

Elizabeth Warren will not be able to escape her pretense of being a Native American even if it were done innocently. She and her institution benefited from the pretense which aggravates it.

Not only do I find it very difficult to believe that anyone who spent his honeymoon in the Soviet Union will be elected president, he’s not a Democrat which seems to me would be a requirement for running for president on the Democratic ticket. What you can conclude from that is that he’s not a team player. The Democratic leadership will see that as too big a risk.

10 comments… add one
  • jan Link

    Van Johnson, a liberal commentator, view of last night’s debate was that it was a “dispiriting” event.

  • Andy Link

    “What you can conclude from that is that he’s not a team player. The Democratic leadership will see that as too big a risk.”

    I don’t think the Democratic leadership can stop him, anymore than the GoP leadership could stop Trump.

    But I doubt very much he will get the nomination anyway, but God help us if he does.

  • jan Link

    Correction: Van Jones

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    Andy has it correct.

    Trump was a registered Democrat until 2009, which is an even a bigger leap than Sen Sanders not being a registered Democrat for large parts of his life.

  • I don’t think the Democratic leadership can stop him, anymore than the GoP leadership could stop Trump.

    Sure they can. Trump could self-finance. Bernie Sanders cannot. He needs the party. And keep in mind the way that the party undermined Sanders the last time around. Additionally, a Democratic candidate needs the party organization a lot more than a Republican one does due to the relationship between the party and unions, particularly public employees’ unions.

    And then there are the superdelegates. The Democratic Party rules requiring proportional distribution of delegates makes the superdelegates that much more powerful.

    I’ve said it before. The situation with the two parties is not symmetrical.

  • Guarneri Link

    Lizzy and Bernie are whack jobs. That said.

    Bernie is easy. He’s a true, and crazed, believer but can only garner a minority. Look at the recent video release. Can the establishment kill him? Of course, just look at what they did for HRC. And that probably delivered Trump.

    Lizzy is more complicated. She’s a liar. Excuse me, she’s “opportunistic.” But opportunistic almost defines these people. She has hop scotched around several issues. So be it. Her problem is that she’s running against the guy perceived as genuine. Plus her election would destroy the economy, and people just aren’t going to let that happen.

    I speculate more about Bloomberg. Boring. Misguided. Almost no connection with voters. But very rich. If money can buy an election there you go.

    So that leaves Biden. He’s about to get very bloodied. Thanks Adam, Jerry and Nancy……………………………………………..fools.

  • steve Link

    “Not only do I find it very difficult to believe that anyone who spent his honeymoon in the Soviet Union will be elected president”

    I guess, but we elected a draft dodger, womanizer, multiply divorced, multiply bankrupted person who likes to make fun of disabled people and goldstar families.. That shows that people are willing to overlook pretty much anything.

    Steve

  • steve Link

    “Her problem is that she’s running against the guy perceived as genuine.”

    Wins the internet today.

    Steve

  • Andy Link

    Dave,

    Sanders is raising plenty of money – a sufficient amount to win the nomination. Also, the Democrat’s reduced the power of party leaders and superdelegates in 2018. Superdelegates are now only a factor in a contested convention. There’s also no evidence, so far, that Biden (ore anyone else) owns the party the way Clinton did in 2016.

    If Sanders wins the early states, he could snowball and win. Should that happen, the party organization and big donors will fall in behind him – after all, what choice would they have?

    Bookmakers currently put his odds at getting the nomination as almost the same as Biden. I continue to think that Sanders won’t win the nomination, but it is a real possibility that shouldn’t be dismissed.

  • If Sanders wins the early states, he could snowball and win.

    That is extremely unlikely due to the proportion representation provisions, i.e. candidates are awarded delegates according to the proportion of votes they receive. IMO one of two things is likely to happen. Either Biden will win the candidacy outright or it will end up contested. That’s the scenario I was considering.

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