Should We Be More Like Japan?

The editors of the Washington Post take a lesson from the pandemic that I find odd and counter-intuitive:

Nearly two years into the pandemic, much has been learned: how the coronavirus transmits, how it can mutate, how vaccines can prevent sickness. But the biggest lesson of all has not sunk in deeply enough: The choices made by people, their individual and collective behavior, are key to human vulnerability and the outcome of the pandemic.

and they hold up Japan as a shining example:

The surge of infections in Japan is plummeting. From a peak of about 23,000 new daily coronavirus cases in August, Japan was down to 400 a day on Oct. 20. In Tokyo, the Associated Press reports that bars are packed, trains crowded and the mood is celebratory. In the capital, the positivity rate fell from 25 percent in late August to 1 percent this month. Why is this happening? Because the population decided to act. The percentage who had received full vaccination soared from 15 percent in early July to 65 percent in early October, and is now nearly 70 percent. This success reflects a choice people made to get vaccinated in large numbers just as a new wave of infection was hitting.

while holding Russia up for scorn:

Russia, by contrast, is stalked by pandemic misery. Daily new cases have topped 37,000 and deaths reached over 1,000 a day, both pandemic records. Russia developed its own vaccine, but the campaign for it has been a flop. Only 45 million people, or about a third of the population, are fully vaccinated. President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 20 ordered most people to take off work for a week starting later this month and stay home in an attempt to stanch the spread. Russia’s sorry plight is also a direct result of choices people made. For much of last year, Mr. Putin and his government said covid-19 had been conquered and was not a big deal. Vaccines were offered and not taken. Moreover, many Russians concluded the government was lying about the statistics and the extent of disease. A large swath of the Russian public does not trust its government and does not trust the vaccine.

Let’s take a more considered look at both countries. Japan is a group of islands comprising about 150,000 square miles of land. The people living in Japan are 98.1% ethnic Japanese. It is a consensus-based society in which the prospect of public shame is a serious deterrent. Confidence in the government is high in Japan and always has been. Russia on the other hand is a sprawling country of more than 9 million square miles—the largest in the world. Its population is multi-ethnic and multi-confessional. It is diverse in the extreme. In its entire history Russians have never trusted their government for a simple reason: the Russians have never had a government worthy of trust. Nonetheless President Putin’s approval rating remains high: 84%. That’s twice the approval that President Biden holds here.

I’ll leave it to the reader. Does the U. S. more closely resemble Japan or Russia?

I look forward to the editors’ proposal for transforming the United States into a mono-ethnic, homogeneous country with a strongly shame-based culture and a government the people should trust.

I don’t know what lesson if any can be learned from the pandemic. It is a force of nature not a moral dilemma. I guess my lesson would be:

I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.

5 comments… add one
  • Grey Shambler Link

    The way Americans are, the government should just pay them $200. to get vaccinated.
    I bet there would be lines.

  • Drew Link

    I think the point about Japan is true and interesting, but I’m not sure its determining factor in covid.

    High vaccine rate states in the US run in the 60’s. Low rate states in the 50s. Anyone who tells me that differential is the magic bullet immediately loses any credibility with me. Acclaimed virologist Doc Taylor at OTB was having a fine two week run of ignorant political blather about FL and Ron DiSantis when their rate went up………..for about two weeks. FL now has the lowest new rate in the nation. And high vaccination rate states in the NE are getting their covid spikes. (see for example Vermont) Doc Taylor has gone silent, never bothering to note FL’s relatively high 60’s vaccination rate, or perhaps he’s recalibrating his abacus.

    I posited that the key was probably much simpler. When its blazing hot in FL in Aug/Sept people are indoors. Now they are not. But in the NE they are. From where I sit there have been two positive public policy initiatives in this whole thing. First, the general development of vaccines. Not because of a 5-10 point differential between state rates, but the difference between zero and whatever rate is prevalent in a geographic area. And almost all the benefit accruing to the older and the comorbid. Thank god Joe developed those vaccines. Wait. What? Oh, never mind.

    The second has been close indoor proximity. Seasonal effects, subway cars, nursing homes etc. Masks are bullshit. Washing your store bought items when you returned home was bullshit. Banning outdoor activities was bullshit. Some of those were probably counterproductive. Such a cost.

    In perspective, I think far more self interested motives have been at work than good, scientifically based public health policy.

  • steve Link

    “I’ll leave it to the reader. Does the U. S. more closely resemble Japan or Russia?”

    Neither at this point. Russia appears to trust Putin. No US POTUS will be much beyond 50%. If the operative word is “should” then the answer is yes if it comes to covid. Japan, like other Asian countries has had brushes with other viruses and took it seriously. People already wore face masks if they thought they were sick to keep others from getting ill so they just continued that. In the US we want to maintain our God given right to infect others. Liberty apparently means you have no responsibility or consideration for others. Heaven knows it might do some of us good to develop a bit of a sense of shame. Mostly, AFAICT, it just looks like the Japanese leaders did not decide to politicize it.

    Steve

  • IMO behavior has less to do with the low prevalence in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan than previous exposure to pathogens similar enough to produce some immunity.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    As to the Chinese, there’s no telling how they pulled it off.
    They’re inscrutable.

Leave a Comment