I’ve made one prediction and it is rather clearly being fulfilled already. Here’s another one.
However bitter the complaints about previous census results they will pale in comparison to the anger and outrage over the results of this decennial census. Lots of people will be horrified at the results, particularly in New York and Chicago. I will not be a bit surprised if Chicago is no longer the third largest city in the U. S. but fallen to fourth or even fifth.
New York, Illinois, and California will all lose seats in Congress; Texas and Florida will gain them. The big questions will be whether New York and California lose one seat each or two.
I can’t even imagine what the shrieks would have been like had the Supreme Court led by John Roberts not struck down the citizenship question, not on the merits but because asking it might be political in nature. Well, duh. The question of whether one is a valid citizen or not is important for the continued health of the nation, any nation. If you post a sign outside your door stating ‘free food, come in and get it’ don’t complain when your neighbors flood your house and start running up the food bills.
Chicago’s problems will worsen when former city workers’ pensions dry up and they are forced to liquidate their homes in order to access Medicaid. Lot’s of homes for sale and no buyers equals no property taxes.
OT-
Indiana went ahead and did the kind of surveillance testing every state should do. Incidence was 2.8%.
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/indianas-covid-19-testing-study-and-what-it-means-for-reopening/
Steve
Thanks, steve. The video embedded at the post to which you linked was interesting. While I agree with his key claim (Indiana is doing the right thing by conducting the testing I’ve been promoting for well over a month, including retesting), I don’t agree with all of his conclusions.
IMO COVID-19 cases are positively correlated with connectedness with the global economy, a proxy metric for it. I wish that New York State were conducting the same sort of testing that Indiana apparently is. New York’s prevalence is already nearly the prevalence revealed by Indiana’s testing. If, like Indiana, NY’s prevalence is actually 11 times its present measures based on diagnostic testing, that would be a whopping 20%! Which, coincidentally, is what tests in NYC have actually suggested.
I don’t share the videocaster’s longing for a national plan. State-based planning is what should be expected in a federal system like ours. A plan that makes sense in Pennsylvania would be nuts in Montana and vice versa and a federal plan that encompasses both would require a vastly expanded federal bureaucracy. As I’ve pointed out the costs of a bureaucracy don’t increase linearly but at n Log n. Federal planning of the sort envisioned would be enormously wasteful.