Sea Wall Holds

Larry Sabato explains the likely results of November’s Senate elections:

The calculated takeaway is this: As of now, Democrats are clear underdogs in the two states where they want to play offense. They also are probably no better than 50-50 in any of the seven red states where they are defending seats, and drowning in a couple. A big enough wave could cut into the blue states, too, although probably not as deeply as Republicans fantasize. Put it all together, and the current forecast calls for a wave that’s more than a ripple but less than a tsunami – a four to eight-seat addition for the Republicans, with the higher end of the range being a shade likelier than the lower. For Harry Reid, that would be a big-enough splash.

For a real Republican wave to emerge they would need to do significantly better than that. Two things would both need to happen: the president’s support would need to collapse and Republicans would have to run completely error-free campaigns. Since I don’t believe that both of those things will happen, I think that the Democrats will hold the Senate.

9 comments… add one

  • ...

    Anyone want to guess at the turnout this fall? I’m thinking it’ll be historically low.

    Of course, I’m looking at this from Florida, where our big race is between our former governor who was worthless (and who is even less trustworthy than most pols), and our current governor who is mostly worthless and a crook.

    In a state of 19,000,000 or so people, it’s gauling to think this is the best we can do. Must be doubly bad for the Dems, since the best they can do is run a failed ex-Republican ex-governor. Gotta give Charlie Crist credit, though, he learned the Dem playbook fast. He’s already said that anyone that doesn’t vote for him is a racist and a sexist, so he is going to have a wonderful time governing with a conservative legislature.

  • Guarneri

    “Gotta give Charlie Crist credit, though, he learned the Dem playbook fast. He’s already said that anyone that doesn’t vote for him is a racist and a sexist,”

    He forgot a key talking point: they must be under the evil influence of the Koch Bros. Dude might lose, ice.

  • ...

    He’s polling out in front right now, and John Morgan negates Scott’s money advantage. Plus, unlike Dem gubernatorial candidates of the last several elections, people actually know Crist and know that he has held big positions before. How they’re forgetting his stint as tha worst governor in Florida in decades I don’t know. For God’s sake, Crist was worse than Bob Martinez!

    Either way, I don’t see people turning out in large numbers in Florida when this is the choice we’ve got.

  • ...

    Scott does have his advantages, though.

    First, he’s a Republican, and in non-Presidential years Florida is still a red state* as many Democratic voters don’t know that elections are ever held unless the Presidency is at stake.

    Second, he has great wealth and thus won’t be outspent.

    Third, at least some people remember that Crist was THE do-nothing governor.

    But it’s funny that Dems down here are pointing out how bad the recovery is under Scott, while claiming at the very same time that the recovery is wonderful (in Florida!) under Obama. But I don’t think I’m supposed to notice that because Michael Sam is gay and Magic Johnson is black, or something.

    * No telling how long that will last, but should end by 2022 at the latest.

  • michael reynolds

    I suspect you’re right, Dave, that’s my instinct as well. But really none of us will know the Revealed Truth until Nate Silver tells us. Or I suppose one could wait until the actual election, if you insist.

  • jan

    I personally don’t see how people could vote for Crist. He’s such a phony, teaming with any political party that will most likely get him elected. IMO, he’s a political opportunist, without real core beliefs.

    As for the midterm, it all depends how much people actively participate in the election to show how sick they are of Obama/Reid politics. Sabato couches his predictions, though, emphasizing these forecasts are being made in May. This at least is what he said in an interview aired today. He went on to say that crazy reversals have happened after May, which could register an entirely different story come November — one in which the dems could breathe a sigh of relief over, or one which could gleefully produce even larger margins for the R’s.

    However, after the 2012 defeat, all my instinctive bets are off. The fact that Obama could be reelected, with such a dismal, weak and controversial record behind him, means the public is capable of being duped, bribed or bored enough for incredulous outcomes to happen, totally absent any logic behind their voting decisions.

    Sometimes, it seems the average voter’s reasoning and astuteness behind elections is nothing more than, a brief contemplation of “What’s in it for me,” or simply a coin toss.

  • ...

    IMO, he’s a political opportunist, without real core beliefs.

    Yes, but that was clear in 2006 when he won the governorship the first time. He had gone this way and that one several issues, always in the most convenient direction, electorally. He won anyway because Republican voters didn’t give a shit as long as he was a Republican and the Dems nominated their usual crappy candidate.

    This time Dems will vote for him because he’s a Dem. And idiots will vote for him because they believe that while the economy is great because Obama, the economy sucks because Scott.

    And both suffer mightily from comparisons to Jeb, though with the usual turnover in Florida not as many people remember Jeb as you’d think. Several months back there were articles in the papers about how even Dem voters were wistful for the Jeb years. Those years weren’t uniformly good either. But when four major hurricanes hit the state in six weeks time in 2004, the man was everywhere. It was really impressive.

  • steve

    I dont see how people voted for Scott. Guy was obviously a crook. “Everybody working for me was committing fraud but I didnt know a thing'” Sure. Anyway, my condolences. Two awful candidates. Not sure what awful choices we will face in PA. At least they kept the Tea Party guy out of the race.

    Steve

  • ...

    I dont see how people voted for Scott.

    (a) He was running using his own money. That is, he bought the Republican nomination.

    (b) He was a Republican running in a red state during a Republican wave election.

    (c) It was 2010, and the Dems chose as his opponent a career politician who had taken time out to get rich as a lawyer, banker and lobbyist. Not exactly a popular set of careers for a pol in 2010.

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