On Monday the U. S. intelligence community released a National Intelligence Estimate finding that it was highly likely that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons development program in 2003 and put in on hold. This is said by some to have weakened the Bush Administration’s hand in dealing with Iran. Then, on Tuesday:
China has for the first time indicated clear support for a new package of United Nations sanctions against Iran, breaking months of deadlock inside the UN security council over how to respond to Tehran’s nuclear programme.
In a move that will boost expectations in western capitals that a new UN sanctions resolution could be agreed within weeks, Beijing signalled over the weekend that it was prepared to back measures that will hit Iran’s banking and business sector, while also prohibiting more senior Iranians from travelling abroad.
Of the five permanent members of the security council (P5), China and Russia have been most opposed to new sanctions against Iran, which the US believes is pursuing nuclear weapons.
Diplomats say China’s opposition to a sanctions package has, if anything, been even more resolute than Russia, because of fears in Beijing that such moves would undermine its trading relationship with Tehran.
However, at a meeting on Saturday of political directors of the P5 and Germany, China indicated that Iran’s recent unwillingness to co-operate with the UN over its nuclear programme means it is now prepared to back a fresh range of sanctions.
“China’s move is the most significant thing that happened at the meeting,†said a senior western diplomat. “If China had gone on expressing objections to more sanctions, it could have taken us six months to get a resolution approved. But there has been a surprisingly good discussion, and momentum towards a new resolution should develop quickly.â€
All offers to connect the dots gratefully received.
I can only offer a few guesses. Is it possible that the NIE was a preemptive strike in anticipation of today’s announcement? That’s more paranoid than I’m comfortable with. Is it possible that the Chinese statement was a response to the NIE? That seems incredible.
It would explain the Administration’s relative sang-froid on the NIE, wouldn’t it?
Update
On re-examining the date of the FT report things become a little clearer. It begins to look to me as though the NIE report were a response to a potential strenghthening of the Administration’s hand. No?
Update 2
Tigerhawk speculates on the possibility of this being China’s next move in “the Great Game” (21st century edition).
