I truly wish that people would not analogize from U. S. politics to British politics and vice versa. The Tories are not the Republicans and Labour is not the Democratic Party. Indeed, from an ideological standpoint both the Democrats and the Republicans would fit handily within the Conservative Party with room to spare. Even with today’s surge in “democratic socialists” among Democrats, they’re more like Tories than they are Labour.
And, for goodness sake, American conservatives should feel no sense of kinship with Likud. Any more than with AfD.
Every country’s politics is uniquely its own. To understand it you need a sophisticated understanding of its history, society, and economy.
That’s why I avoid commenting about other countries’ politics. I don’t know enough and it’s none of my business. Heck, I avoid talking about other states’ politics.
This is right of course (to analog what happened in the U.K. to the US).
But it is worth looking into effects the results have on politics here. For illogical and logical reasons, the Brexit election will have an outsized influence on how voters and analysts think about the 2020 election here.
As an example, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Biden campaign says that picking a “progressive†candidate like Sanders or Warren would lead to a trouncing by Trump like Labor got trounced by Conservatives.
Maybe but I don’t think that Biden can afford to say that. He needs Sanders’s and Warren’s supporters if he is to be elected president.
At least 12% of Democratic voters will only vote for Sanders or Warren. They’d rather see Trump re-elected than Biden elected.
Amusingly I had a little Freudian slip in the body of the post (“despair” rather than “spare”). Corrected.
I think that’s a valid observation. I note that the common thread often cited is perceived dissatisfaction with a self serving and arrogant elite class of politicians and “thought leaders” (snicker) vs ignored, economically stagnant “commoners.” For example, disapproval of willy-nilly immigration is a growing issue in Europe.
Yeah, they thought we were Neanderthals until they had a mass immigration problem of their own. Now we’re all Neanderthals.
Definitely agree about parties, but I think there is a comparison with overall trends that are very similar to what’s happening in the US and elsewhere:
– Movement of the working class away from liberal parties
– Populism and growing hostility to internationalism/globalism
– Limits on the appeal of progressive values (gender, white fragility, multiculturalism, etc.)
– Immigration and sovereignty
– Deep divisions in society and over policy with no possible compromise
– Growing economic, political and social inequality whether real or perceived.
We can’t compare parties directly, but we can look at these and other trends to estimate their effects here.
I agree w/ Andy. European countries have seen sharp declines in their traditional parties of the left in favor of center right, technocratic and/or neo-liberalism. This seems to stem from broader economic changes happening everywhere with the alienation of the professional and working classes. (The EU may be a relevant factor in that it acts to restrain state intervention in member economies in many ways.)
What motivated this post is that Labour is not the Democratic Party and Likud is not the Republican Party. You might be able to draw analogies between Labour and about a third of the Democratic Party but the other two-thirds of the party are actually more like Conservatives.
Biden might not make the argument, but others will, like Chuck Todd, moderator of Meet the Press.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/corbyn-s-uk-defeat-was-bad-news-sanders-warren-america-n1101416
Labour is equivalent to the far-left Progressives in the Democratic party, Liberal Demo is middle Democratic, Conservative is moderate Democratic. UKIP is about the closest thing to any wing of the Republican Party in Britain (single issue parties like SNP don’t count).
Right now there isn’t a left-right issue in Israel. Labor has become moribund in that country. It’s two factions of Likud battling each other for power, which is why it’s so vicious.
Dave: Be skeptical when you hear any political party (or person) in Europe labeled as Fascist or Nazi. It’s frequently a media smear job to keep legitimate concerns regarding immigration and cultural policing out-of-bouts for civilized discussion.
“Populism and growing hostility to internationalism/globalism”
And to express such an opinion can be dangerous professionally if not legally. (I believe G.B. has hate speech laws).
So that leaves the feelings to simmer unexpressed to be let out in the secret ballot box at election time.
Maybe the Left will seek now to make voting publicly posted, like sex offender lists.
And in a surprise – Joe Biden was quoted last night.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/474419-biden-calls-boris-johnson-a-physical-and-emotional-clone-of-trump
“Boris Johnson is winning in a walk,†Biden said Thursday, predicting that headlines would say, “Look what happens when the Labour Party moves so, so far to the left. It comes up with ideas that are not able to be contained within a rational basis quickly.â€
That isn’t the reason I brought up AfD. The reason was that AfD is an anti-immigration party which, otherwise, has policy preferences practically no Republican would be comfortable with because they’re too far left. That’s really my point. Politics are different in other countries.
Similarly with Front National in France. They’re anti-immigrant but otherwise not particularly “conservative”.
And IMO if anything SNP is farther left than Labour.
That’s interesting about Biden. IMO he’s either too confident or doesn’t recognize the divisions within his own party.
I think Andy’s observations were spot-on, in listing similar patterns effecting elections globally. Intrinsically, IMO, people tire of being loaded over, demeaned by their supposed “betters,†and being told to disbelieve long held values, grievances, or what their own eyes are seeing. So, they finally rebel – switching right to left, and left to right in a reliable cyclical process.
That’s Neanderthal, sir, to you buddy….
I think Andy more eloquently and in a more detailed fashion captures the sentiment I was expressing. People are pissed off. And not just D or R. Its the elite vs the ruled.
I think that we are seeing some of capitalism’s tenets being tested as it is actually practiced. It has lead to stagnation and loss of good jobs in many places. Immigration is being blamed for nearly all of these problems, and probably is responsible for some of the issues. However, absent immigration issues we still face the same problems, maybe not as severe. Blaming the “other” has always played well in politics and it does lead away from liberal tendencies and towards conservative thought.
What doesn’t get blamed on immigrants gets blamed on China. Again, the focus is on the “other”. There is almost zero attention paid to the US policies and corporate practices that lead to China becoming an issue. I will go out on a limb, pretty safely I think, and predict that we will see little or no attempt at changing any domestic policy or see real changes in corporate policy and culture that will change much. IOW, we may have some window dressing with a few trading partners but we will still have massive inequality and we won’t see much improvement in the quality of jobs available.
Steve
Which is kind of ironic as it has been conservative leadership that lead to a lot of the problems with the way we actually practice capitalism. Even immigration is largely due to business wanting cheap labor. (The whole idea that liberals want immigrants here so they will vote for Democrats has always been pretty funny.)
Steve
I don’t blame it on either immigrants or China. I think both are just acting in a way consistent with their incentives. I blame the Congress. Maybe the Congress is acting in a way consistent with its incentives, too. Its incentives must change.
Andrew Sullivan has an interesting essay about it all. A taste:
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/12/andrew-sullivan-boris-johnsons-winning-formula.html