Rebuilding Party or Lockdown Party?

In a Washington Post op-ed former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel offers some advice to Democrats which I wonder if they’ll be willing to take:

Trump wants to color this moment as one in which he is leading America forward and Democrats are dragging their feet. It is a narrative that falls nicely into his grievance-driven worldview. Each time we resist his efforts to reopen the economy, we come off as that much more effete and out of touch. He’s setting a trap for us.

And in politics, you can’t beat something with nothing. Rather than centering our agenda on resistance to the reopening he intends to trumpet, Democrats should respond by explaining how we intend to rebuild America.

To be clear, the issue here isn’t policy — or even economics. It’s culture. Democrats are so aligned with data, science and logic that we’ve lost sight of why so much of the country is skeptical of expertise. It was the elites who claimed we’d be welcomed as liberators to Iraq, where we would find weapons of mass destruction. It was the elites who talked up collateralized mortgages, and then bailed out Wall Street while Main Street suffered. In too many cases, the elites have gotten the big ones wrong and never paid any price.

Let me interrupt him. Are the Democrats really the party of “data, science and logic” or are they the party of credentialism? Scientists have preferences, agendas, and political preferences, too. Not every policy recommended by an expert reflects data, science, or logic but it’s a rare expert who will recommend a policy with which he or she disagrees ideologically.

He continues:

What if, rather than sparring with Trump, Democrats presented a comprehensive plan to rebuild our roads, bridges, dams, school, hospitals and more — so we emerge from this crisis with a more vibrant economy? We will need millions of additional coders, cybersecurity analysts, nurses, construction workers, teachers, aides and more in the decades to come. How about offering these workers this bargain: As their hunt for work continues, Washington will give them another bonus if they pursue an online degree in coding, advanced manufacturing or nursing assistance, among other areas. We can turn crisis into opportunity, transforming our workforce into an army of American rebirth.

which completely confirms the point I made above. His answer is to seek credentials. That those credentials won’t be of much use when everyone in the world with a PC, an Internet connection, and a credential is competition for “coders” and willing to work for $5/hour. Or that there are, literally, millions of Mexican and Central American workers who would be delighted to take jobs as construction workers in the U. S. Or that Filipino nurses can be brought into this country and will work for less. Or that at least hereabouts there’s already a waiting list to get a job as a public school teacher and that by and large teachers’ aides are the next thing to volunteers—their pay is a pittance and, frequently, they aren’t even eligible for benefits. More than one qualified teacher is working as a teacher’s aide, not even able to pay off his or her educational debt.

And will Democrats take his advice? Will they take the risk of emerging from lockdown? And will they be willing to shelve “Green New Deal”-type plans in favor of producing and building more in the United States?

9 comments… add one
  • Guarneri Link

    “Are the Democrats really the party of “data, science and logic” or are they the party of credentialism? Scientists have preferences, agendas, and political preferences, too.”

    You beat me to it. As I was reading RE’s words that’s exactly what hit me.

    “…it’s a rare expert who will recommend a policy with which he or she disagrees ideologically.”

    Heh. Or a commenter who will disagree with the policy of a political figure he prefers, even if only by comparison. Contra claims of cult following, from people who should look in the mirror, Trump could be excused for advocating a short term hard lockdown, perhaps 2-3 weeks, out of a respect for the unknown or reputed experts. But he waited too long to reverse course. When medical system overload failed to materialize it should have been game over for hard lockdown.

    “… will they be willing to shelve “Green New Deal”-type plans…” Or identity politics.

    Joltin’ Joe’s recent comments appear to indicate “no.”

  • jan Link

    I had the same reaction as Dave & Drew after reading that “data, science and logic” excerpt.

    I also agree, in hindsight, Trump waited to long to reverse the lockdown course, deferring instead to Dr. Fauci’s daily advice dictated by decidedly wrong computer models. However, with such incredibly rancid opposition party relationships, it also becomes incredibly difficult to sensibly assess a crisis, while there are ongoing, unrelenting intense attempts aimed at unseating a president rather than providing bipartisanship help to address a pandemic.

  • Andy Link

    Like is so often the case with op-eds, the problem identification portion is reasonable but the solution portion is bonkers.

  • the problem identification portion is reasonable but the solution portion is bonkers.

    Welcome to the wonderful world of policy-making. Even when there is general agreement about the nature of the problem, there is frequently more than one opinion about the best way of addressing it. That’s because “best” is often a value judgment, depending on relative perceived worth within a hierarchy of values.

    But increasingly there’s no meeting of minds about the nature of the problems. Take COVID-19 (please!). In general optimization theory tells you that your first target should be where there’s the most to optimize but that’s not always the case. Other times it’s better just to pick the low-hanging fruit.

    Why are blacks suffering disproportionately from COVID-19? There are those who believe that it’s racism full stop and any solution other than eliminating racism immediately will do nothing. My view is that even if it’s 90% racism, the other 10% will probably be easier to address at this point and should receive some attention first. See what I mean? No meeting of minds.

  • Greyshambler Link

    Native Americans are dying of Covid as well but since they are not affected by racism it negates the causation.
    Could it be soul food?

  • steve Link

    “Not every policy recommended by an expert reflects data, science, or logic ”

    By and large scientists dont suggest policy and they certainly dont determine it. The very large majority follow the science (not counting “social scientists here”) wherever it goes. When it comes to recommending policy their ideas can be just as good or bad as anyone else’s. Public health might be a little different as they dont get to just announce the science, they need to take actions. They still work through the political class. So you had Fauci looking at the computer models which were surprisingly accurate and making recommendations, but he had no ability to enforce his ideas. It is a shame that Trump had alienated everyone not in his cult so that made it harder to work with everyone, even when he did stop dallying. Fortunately the general public was able to understand the issues well enough to begin mitigation efforts before governments acted.

    “And will they be willing to shelve “Green New Deal””

    Has as much chance passing as Trump’s “health care for everyone that will be better and cheaper”.

    Steve

  • steve Link

    Israel used physicists and mathematicians instead of epidemiologists. They seem unhappy with those results.

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-coronavirus-israel-why-no-one-can-explain-the-drop-in-cases-after-lockdown-lifted-1.8871985

    Steve

  • Israel is a wonderful test case for my hypothesis. Its deaths/1M are 31 and its diagnosed cases/1M are 1,826. Why is its outbreak so relatively minor? I would suggest that it’s because Israel is only tangentially related to the global economy, China in particular

  • steve Link

    Israel probably had little exposure and it instituted controls pretty early. Also is sunny and warm I think.

    Steve

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