Rat Deserts Sinking Ship Emanuel Will Not Seek Re-Election

The big news here in Chicago is that Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will not seek re-election. The Chicago Tribune’s Bill Ruthhart of Clout Street says:

In a stunning decision, Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced Tuesday morning that he will no longer seek a third term in office, signaling the end to what has been a tumultuous – and at times transformative – eight years in office.

With First Lady Amy Rule by his side, an emotional Emanuel said the time simply had come to write a new chapter in their lives together.

“I’ve decided not to seek re-election,” Emanuel said. “This has been the job of a lifetime, but it is not a job for a lifetime.”

Emanuel’s decision marks a dramatic political reversal, as for the better part of the last year he had said he would run for a third term. The mayor, long a prolific fundraiser, had already reeled in more than $10 million toward a bid for a third term.

There are lots of speculations about the nature of the decision and its timing. Here’s mine. I believe that he thinks that J. B. Pritzker will be elected governor in November and it won’t take him long to run the state into a ditch. Running for re-election in the environment that will prevail by then with the city and state in desperate financial condition and political turmoil will not be a success-oriented experience.

In 1969 Laurence J. Peter enunciated a principle, probably the most important revelation about large organizations since Parkinson’s Law. It explains why just about nobody in a large organization is particularly good at his or her job. They have been promoted through jobs they were actually okay at until they reach their level of incompetence and that’s where they remain in the organization. Not everyone reaches her or his level of incompetence. Some retire or go to another organization and the rare few are able to tackle any job that comes their way. That’s maybe one in a million.

Rahm Emanuel has Peter Principled out as mayor of Chicago. He was okay as Deputy Whip although a lousy Congressman. He would have made an excellent head of the DNC since the job requirements are that you can raise money and strategize elections and those are Emanuel’s core competencies.

But not only has he reached his level of incompetence as mayor of Chicago, he’s peculiarly unqualified for the job. He doesn’t have people skills; he doesn’t have a natural constituency; most of the money he raised for his election campaigns was from outside the city; he’s antagonized important people. He doesn’t have charm or charisma; he can’t inspire people; he doesn’t have management skills; he doesn’t have technical skills. Being able to raise money and strategize elections is enough to get elected but not enough to be mayor.

It will be interesting to see what happens now, whether some name politicians will enter the race. I can’t imagine why anyone competent would want to be mayor of Chicago right about now.