Quick Prediction

Unless the European economic downturn is shallow and brief, there will be major political upheaval in the Middle East. As in “you ain’t seen nothing’ yet” upheaval.

7 comments… add one
  • TastyBits Link

    Trouble is coming to the Middle East, and it will center around Iran. Putin is using Iran/Syria to begin moving Russia to an influential world power, and he ain’t concerned with Western opinion. With no counter weight to Russia in the Middle East, Iran will be the lead power there. Iraq and Lebanon will fall in line, and any major opposition will be introduced to one of the many terrorist organizations Iran supports (directly or indirectly).

    The House of Saud is under pressure from multiple fronts, and without an ironclad, unwavering commitment from the US, the Iranian influence will be felt by Saudi Arabia. Jordan will follow the Saudi direction. One impact will be upon the Saudi & Jordanian relationship with Israel. They will be required to openly and vigorously condemn Israel.

    Egypt’s instability requires their military to limit itself to Egypt. Engagement with Israel may be the exception.

  • Drew Link

    Heh. Or maybe the Saudis could come to Jesus (sorry) and buy off US support for their smelly, pathetic asses with cheap oil.

  • I think that Iran and Saudi Arabia are both very vulnerable. And, since not only is Russia highly dependent on oil revenues but borders Iran, Russia is pretty vulnerable, too.

  • Icepick Link

    Russian doesn’t border Iran, Sarah. 😉

  • TastyBits Link

    The Europeans will still need oil, and any surplus will be bought by someone. The price may drop, but it will be sold. If it is sold on the spot market, they may still make money. It depends upon the contract price. On the other hand, the speculators will be jumping out windows.

    The Russian and Iranian governments are autocratic, and domestically, they will be able to manage. With foreign instability, the Russians will increase arms sales. Both will be able to increase their sphere of influence.

    It is best to have a strong friend, but a powerful protector is not free. In an unstable and chaotic world, the price of protection increases.

    Without a powerful friend, the House of Saud will fall or falter, and Saudi Arabia will resemble Afghanistan. Saudi oil production will drop as internal strife increases.

  • Russian doesn’t border Iran, Sarah.

    The Russian border is separated from the Iranian border by about 100 miles worth of Georgia. That’s close enough to say that the two countries border each other.

  • Icepick Link

    Isn’t that kind of reasoning how Poland periodically gets wiped off the map?

    Kaiser: Well, we more or less border each other, why not make it official?

    Tsar: Da! No more Poland!

Leave a Comment