At Bloomberg View Tobin Harshaw interviews Victor Cha on the prospects for the meeting between U. S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. As Mr. Cha sees it here’s the definition of success:
I think the bare minimum would be statements by the North Korean leader committing to denuclearization and negotiating a process, conducted at a high level such as Secretary of State Pompeo and his equivalent, to negotiate terms of full denuclearization. That is the bare minimum of what could be called success.
and here’s his view of the worst case scenario:
If there are just a bunch of words, we know it’s just made for TV and not a real process. That wouldn’t make us more secure — if anything it would make us less secure.
“Worst case scenarios” always amuse me. No matter how bleak, I can always think of something worse. IMO the worst case scenario would be that President Trump views the talks as building a case for a military strike at North Korea’s inevitable next provocation. Now that’s a worst case scenario.
As to the best case scenario I think that what Mr. Cha referred to as the “bare minimum” is pretty close.
Kim was not driven or forced to this summit, it’s been his goal all along. His development of ICBM s is what brought US to the table. What he wants of course is public assurances of his personal safety, preferably by treaty. Possibly including a final formal end to the Korean war, and lifting of sanctions.
If we don’t also get an end to his nuclear program, with U.N. inspections, I think Trump should walk away.