If you liked 2011, you’re going to love 2012. I wish I could predict with confidence that Iran wasn’t going to test a nuclear weapon in 2012 or that Israel would not attack Iran but, honestly, I’m just not sure any more.
- U. S. GDP will increase less than 3%.
- At the end of the year the unemployment rate will be no lower than 8%. I suspect it will be closer to 9%.
- Housing prices as measured by the Case-Shiller index will continue to decline, probably by no more than 5% and no less than 3%.
- The number of U. S. troops in Afghanistan on December 31, 2012 will be somewhere between 80,000 and 110,000.
- Republicans will retain their majority in the House of Representatives.
- Republicans will assume a narrow majority in the Senate.
- Joe Biden will stay on the ticket and, especially, will not be replaced by Hillary Clinton.
- President Obama will be elected to a second term.
- The PPACA will be upheld by the Supreme Court.
- The Republican Congress will be unable to override the president’s veto of its repeal of the PPACA (although amendments and partial repeal may go through).
- As the date in February on which Italy must re-finance its debt nears, European leaders will go through another spasm of activity. They’ll kick the can down the road again.
- As of December 31, 2012 Greece will still be a member of the EMU.
- 2012 will not be a good foreign policy year for China. Several of their major clients will embarrass them including North Korea, Iran, and Zimbabwe.
- The al-Assad regime will retain at least nominal control of Syria.
- The “Occupy” encampments will not return with their former strength when the weather improves.
- The Descendants, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Artist, and Moneyball will all receive Academy Award nominations for Best Picture. The Artist may well win.
- The Adventures of Tin Tin and Hugo will both receive Academy Award nominations as Best Animated Feature. Hugo will win.
- An aircraft carrier will not crash into the White House during 2012.
Here’s the prediction of which I’m most confident: my list of predictions does not include the most important events of 2012.
Dave, I think this comment is mis-posted here.
From Dave Schuler:
Thanks. I’ve removed the comment and re-posted it where it belonged.
The Democrats could lose the Senate while still staying in the minority in the House, but I’m not so sure about those predictions. It’s a big Presidential election year, which means that overall turn-out will likely be higher than it was in 2010. Higher turn-out overall usually helps Democrats.
All that said, neither side really seems enthusiastic at this point. A lot of the Tea Party Excitement has faded since 2010, and the Democrats seem pretty quiet outside of a few areas.
I wish I could predict with confidence that Iran wasn’t going to test a nuclear weapon in 2012 or that Israel would not attack Iran but, honestly, I’m just not sure any more.
SOMEONE is already attacking the Iranians – I’ve seen several reports of various installations suffering damage in Iran, and someone has been bumping off various Iranian researchers.
I mean something a bit more, er, kinetic than what has happened in Iran for the last couple of years. If anything has happened, that is.
Kinetic, huh? How about if someone drops an asteroid on a key research facility?
@ Brett. The redistricting from 2010 largely favored the Republicans. In any case, I would not expect much volatitility so close to a redistricting year because the parties have just selected their voters.
Perhaps that should be my prediction: fewer contested Congressional seats than in the last few elections. Also, the winter will feel cold over large parts of the country.
I see you’re getting the hang of the prediction game. Mostly just observation and making connections. You’ve presented a pretty good reason that the Republicans are likely to hold the House. When you look at the race-by-race context of the 2012 Senate class, it mostly explains why I think the Republicans are likely to take it.
Accidents will happen. Maybe I should add that to my list of predictions: an asteroid will not destroy a key Iranian research facility.
I told my wife we needed to buy a shotgun and a few hundred shells so we’d be ready for the asteroid/zombie/Yellowstone/superflu apocalypse. She was oddly unmoved. Women just don’t take things seriously sometimes.
You’ve got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals.
Illinois predictions:
Demoracts take a 10-8 advantage in Congressional seats, which is greater than the current 11-8 Republican advantage, but the remap underperforms previous 12 Democratic seats in Illinois.
Democrats lose one chamber in the state legislature in 2012 despite a strong showing for Obama in Illinois.
The Descendants, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Artist, and Moneyball will all receive Academy Award nominations for Best Picture. The Artist may well win.
I think Warhorse might be included, and the The Artist looks very interesting.
My golf game might improve (had my ankle fused).
Maybe I should add that to my list of predictions: an asteroid will not destroy a key Iranian research facility.
What odds will you give on that one?