Predictions for 2009

It’s time for my predictions for 2009.

 On December 31, 2009 there will be at least 70,000 American soldiers in Iraq.

 Neither the U.S. nor Israel will either bomb or invade Iran.

 The Pivot. A significant number of those who’ve been clamoring that we needed to commit more troops to the “real war” in Afghanistan will change their minds once those troops have been committed. Nothing will have changed in Afghanistan—it will still be the mess it’s been. Only their perceptions of the utility of the course of action will have changed.

 The Obama Administration will follow the pattern of recent administrations and throw a sop to its base early in the administration. The sop in question may well be healthcare reform. How the administration deals with the ensuing squabble will color the rest of the Administration’s experience.

 No major Chicago sports team (which I define as the White Sox, the Cubs, the Bulls, the Bears, and the Blackhawks) will win a championship series.

 I certainly hope that Nouriel Roubini is right, that the Fed’s and the Treasury’s prompt, aggressive actions have been the right things to, and that the economy will start to perk up again in the spring. My prediction is that we’re headed for a Japan-style L-shaped recession. However, it won’t be as severe as all the rhetoric we’ve been hearing over the last couple of months might have lead you to believe.

 The Obama Administration will enjoy a honeymoon with the press longer than any in recent memory. I wouldn’t be surprised if the light treatment the press has given the administration continues right through the four (or eight) years that it lasts and beyond.

 I actually think it’s even money but I’ll predict there won’t be a war between India and Pakistan in 2009.

 Unless he doesn’t ask to be seated, the Senate will seat Roland Burris.

 California’s de facto bankruptcy will turn into actual default. The federal government will extend credit to the state.

 WALL-E will not receive the Oscar for Best Picture.

 Civil unrest in China rarely makes the news here in the U. S. The economic downturn will be sufficiently severe in China that the rest of the world won’t be able to ignore the ensuing unrest.

 At least one major corporate pension plan will default in the course of the year, forcing the PBGC to turn to Congress for funds, and causing a re-thinking of the requirements for corporate pension plans.

 Meryl Streep will receive the Academy Award for Best Actress for Doubt.

 It’ll be a cold, snowy winter. That won’t deter global warming enthusiasts.

 The single bright light in consumer technology will be smartphones.

 Rod Blagojevich’s term will expire before he’s removed from office.

I’ll post other folk’s predictions as I find them.

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