I just noticed that I never managed to cobble together my predictions for 2013. No great loss, really. I will, however, go on record for my predictions for the Academy Awards:
Best Picture: Lincoln
Best Director: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Most of these are conventional wisdom with the exception of my Best Picture pick. The smart money seems to be on Argo. Here’s my thinking. There’s a kind of “herd mentality” in the Academy and I’ve noticed that in the past it’s been pretty common for a movie to “have a night”. The awards are inter-related, not isolated from one another. It’s hard for me to see the Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor categories turning out the way I’ve predicted without seeing Lincoln take best picture, too.
If it turns out not to be a Lincoln night, there could be a lot of surprises. I don’t see how Daniel Day-Lewis can miss for Best Actor but there is one reason he might: he’s already won two Academy Awards as Best Actor. No actor has ever won three. To the best of my knowledge only one actress, Katharine Hepburn, has won three Best Actress Academy Awards and, indeed, she won four (if you count Morning Glory).