Predicting the Oscars

I just noticed that I never managed to cobble together my predictions for 2013. No great loss, really. I will, however, go on record for my predictions for the Academy Awards:

Best Picture: Lincoln
Best Director: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables

Most of these are conventional wisdom with the exception of my Best Picture pick. The smart money seems to be on Argo. Here’s my thinking. There’s a kind of “herd mentality” in the Academy and I’ve noticed that in the past it’s been pretty common for a movie to “have a night”. The awards are inter-related, not isolated from one another. It’s hard for me to see the Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor categories turning out the way I’ve predicted without seeing Lincoln take best picture, too.

If it turns out not to be a Lincoln night, there could be a lot of surprises. I don’t see how Daniel Day-Lewis can miss for Best Actor but there is one reason he might: he’s already won two Academy Awards as Best Actor. No actor has ever won three. To the best of my knowledge only one actress, Katharine Hepburn, has won three Best Actress Academy Awards and, indeed, she won four (if you count Morning Glory).

8 comments… add one
  • PD Shaw

    I have no idea and certainly haven’t seen any of the movies to know what their appeal would be. I saw the Hobbit, and was not informed that its three hour length was actually measured in “Hobbit years,” it actually feels a lot longer, sort of stretched, like butter scraped over too much bread.

  • Drew

    I’m not a big mainstream movie guy.

    I watched ARGO Friday night on DVR for the first time. It was excellent. But not a world changer. I was more captivated by the historical context than anything else. And I have to admit – as surprised as you all might be – I’m actually a completely empathetic guy, and found a tear in my eye as the plane took off. Not because I thought that tense moment in the film really reflected perfectly reality, but because of the general gravity of the situation and perhaps the tribulations and relief of the parties. I have an inate ability to put myself in other’s shoes.

    As for Lincoln, maybe its just me. DDLewis was in fact really good. But he just did a good perceived rendition. I guess, a perceived mirror act.

    Me? I’m an unabashed Denzel Washington guy. I literally teared up in “Man on Fire” when a young and oh-so-ahead of her time Dakota Fanning asked “you love me, don’t you Creasy?…and I love you.” It seems he can do any role.

    I haven’t seen “Flight” but I hear its going to be washed out in these Oscars.

    I spend so many days on the road in hotel rooms I’ll get to see all the movies I need.

    “……say ‘what’ again mf, I dare you?…..”

  • michael reynolds


    A third of the movies I see are in hotel rooms, another third are on a little pop-up screen in the armrest of a plane or on the back of the seat in front of me. Only a third are in actual theaters. Of the big noms this year though I did see Argo, Lincoln, Django and Life of Pi on real screens.

    Argo: B+, Lincoln B+, Django C, Life of Pi C. Figure I’ll get Silver Linings Playbook on a flight eventually and Les Mis when it gets to Netflix. I do want to see Flight but have to overcome family resistance to upside-down-airplane movies.

  • Icepick

    I saw the Hobbit, and was not informed that its three hour length was actually measured in “Hobbit years,” it actually feels a lot longer, sort of stretched, like butter scraped over too much bread.

    Lordie, you got that right. They’ve taken Tolkein’s best, most accessible story telling and made it a turgid mess. It was the first movie I had been to in years, and what a disappointment. Not quite as bad as having Lucas and Speilberg rape my childhood, mind you, but lord it wasn’t good.

  • Icepick
  • PD Shaw

    @Icepick, I thought the worst part was that my kids found it difficult to follow the storyline in the Hobbit, not so the Lord of the Rings.

  • Drew


    Keep me informed of your schedule. Depending on my mood I’ll inform Al-Quaida terrorists…….or arrange to buy you a drink….

  • Icepick

    PD, that captures the problem with the movie perfectly.

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