I’m reading lots of breathless predictions these days. Putin is on his way out. Russia is on the verge of collapse. The Ukrainians will retake Crimea.
I don’t know if any of them are true or even credible. I do think that, if Ukraine retakes Crimea, Putin will be out and Russia will collapse into multiple squabbling land-locked statelets.
Sevastopol is practically Russia’s only deep water warm water port. Without it Russia will be crippled—that’s why Russia moved to take it in 2014.
I don’t know about any of these predictions. I do think that nuclear war is about as likely as Ukraine retaking Sevastopol.
If Putin is removed, he will be replaced by a new Stalin, and the Ukrainian war will become a general European/North American war. Remember, he is the voice of moderation and conciliation in the Russia government.
However, Russian collapse is not happening and will not happen. To date about half the force Russia has deployed are actually the Donbas militias. Less than 100,000 Russian troops are involved at any one time.
Russia has now mobilized some 300,000 reservists, and the size of its active duty army has doubled. The annexation of the four oblasts also removes a legal obstacle to the use of conscripts. Conscripts were only supposed to be used to defend Russia itself, none in Syria, for example. Now they can be sent to the annexed oblasts.
People forget. Russia has a population of over 140,000,000 people, and an industrial sector that is two-thirds the size of the US’ industrial sector (but only 40% of the US’ total economy). It has as many engineers and scientists as the US on 40% of the US’ population. Russia manufactures all sorts of advance, cutting edge items: commercial jet airliners, satellites and launch rockets, ballistic missile submarines, commercial ships (up to 100,000 tons displacement), automobiles, computers, metals, fuels… It is the largest agricultural exporter in the world, and it has by far the largest natural resource base.
Russia is also at the center of several international organizations promoting trade and infrastructure development: SCO, OBOR/BRI, EAEU, OPEC+, BRICSIA, the North/South pipeline from Russia to India… Moreover, these organizations are attracting new members from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Russia is far from being isolated. It is the US/EU that is being isolated.
The recent decision by OPEC+ cut oil production by 2 million bbl/d is a recognition that the EU economy is about to undergo a major contraction. It is also a slap in the face from Saudi Arabia’s leader Mohammed bin Salman to Biden. (Of course, Biden earlier called MbS a murderer.)
The cherry on the Sundae: Iran is negotiating (with the support of Russia) to join OPEC+
The Russians are not doing well. There is a lot of uncertainty – judging intangibles like morale and the will to hold and fight is challenging. A collapse is certainly on the table, but it’s something that is difficult to predict.
Predicting a Russia collapse is mostly wishful thinking. It could happen but very unlikely as Russia still has a lot fo things going for it. Might be a change in government but even that is not very likely I think. Russians seem to think Putin played a part in their better economic performance after he took over. Plus Putin controls the media.
I think what you can predict is that there will be some changes, maybe especially in their military. Not many people seriously thought Ukraine stood a chance. The military has way underperformed. I also suspect their intelligence services see a shake up if not already done. They vastly underestimated the Ukraine military and the ability of the govt to lead during a crisis.
Steve
If it were only Russia vs the Ukrainians I might agree.
But what, for instance, will the
Chechens do, and other ethnic groups Russia holds by force in the fold.
And even if they get lucky there, they still need to defend against the possibility which will spread them thin.
BTW, I see our government has ordered 1/4 billion dollars in potassium iodide tablets.
Daddy Warbucks always wins.
Judging from Biden’s comments — it seems Biden just came to the same realization.
Problem is, Biden still has it wrong. The analogy is not 1962; its to 1945. And US policymakers are in complete denial in thinking any Russian nuclear strike will/can be contained to Ukraine.
They have been pretty careful about avoiding direct confrontation with Russia. They have not been sending the real long range weapons. They did not agree to send Poland planes so Poland could send Ukraine planes. I think the evidence is that the administration has been pretty aware that they want to avoid open conflict with Russia. Since we arent going to invade them and they arent going to invade us that means avoiding nukes.
Steve
US policy makers think they are careful.
I would remark practically everyone not militarily aligned with the US; or the Russians would disagree. And there is profound disagreement now on whether the US is supporting an invasion of Russian territory.
And something that keeps happening to commenters — they keep forgetting on the use of nuclear weapons; its the Russian view on American actions that count. American views on Russian actions count as well. American views on American actions don’t matter and that goes for Russian views on Russian actions.
“And there is profound disagreement now on whether the US is supporting an invasion of Russian territory.”
At some point we do have to deal with real life facts. There is no movement towards invading Russia. None.
Steve
We are about to find out if Dave is correct with regards to Crimea.
The bridge connecting Crimea to Russia was attacked with substantial damage. That bridge is strategic — akin to the value of the Golden Gate Bridge. The Russians know that could not have been done without American weapons.
That’s as good a causus belli for triggering a nuclear war as any we are going to find.
Didn’t someone say that with Trump out the adults are back in charge?
Just better hope they’re the right adults.