For the sake of argument imagine that on any given issue the only consequences that you need to be concerned about are the political consequences. You don’t need to worry about economic consequences in the case of an ill-considered economic policy. You don’t need to worry about adverse reactions from other countries or foreign organization as a result of foreign policy decisions. And so on. Just the electoral political implications. I think that’s a much better if over-simplified explanation for the president’s words and actions than Peggy Noonan’s explanation:
A man who personally picks drone targets, who seems sometimes to enjoy antagonizing congressional Republicans, whose speeches not infrequently carry a certain undercurrent of political malice, cannot precisely be understood as soft.
But we focus on Mr. Obama personality and psychology—he’s weak or arrogant or ambivalent, or all three—and while this is interesting, it’s too fancy. We are overthinking the president.
His essential problem is that he has very poor judgment.
And we don’t say this because he’s so famously bright—academically credentialed, smooth, facile with words, quick with concepts. (That’s the sort of intelligence the press and popular historians most prize and celebrate, because it’s exactly the sort they possess.) But brightness is not the same as judgment, which has to do with discernment, instinct, the ability to see the big picture, wisdom that is earned or natural.
Mr. Obama can see the trees, name their genus and species, judge their age and describe their color. He absorbs data. But he consistently misses the shape, size and density of the forest. His recitations of data are really a faux sophistication that suggests command of the subject but misses the heart of the matter.
Take the president’s decision to oppose ISIS/ISIL with bombs, support for imaginary Syrian moderate rebels, and non-existent allies who will commit troops to the campaign but not “boots on the ground”. I think the complete package of the president’s views inclusive both of rhetoric and practical steps can only be recognized when viewed solely through the lens of domestic electoral politics.
The president must do something. The bloody heads of Americans and Brits beheaded by ISIS form an unassailable argument. Failing to react forcefully to those provocations won’t pick up seats in Illinois, New York, or New Jersey. Those seats are already solidly Democratic. Lack of a forceful reaction might lose seats in Louisiana, Iowa, and Alaska. The merits of the threat posed by ISIS just don’t warrant a committed response. Consequently, a response that falls short of a committed response is the best possible political judgment.
As I have said before, I don’t fault the president for not wanting to commit troops to Iraq and Syria because I don’t think the threat to the United States posed by ISIS/ISIL warrants it. My sole complaint is that the president does not appear to be willing to assuage the concerns of the American people and sell his plan to them.
Uhhh, half of America thinks he should be doing a lot more. On my Tea Party email group they want a full scale invasion right now. So, of corse domestic politics matter. Why shouldn’t it? First, let’s divest ourselves of our hubris. No one really knows the right thing to do in this situation. Too many variables. Too many crazies. Too much religion. We just make our best guess and, hopefully, change as needed as we of along. I think a minimalist response is the correct one. It looks like you do, as does the Obama admin. How does he then sell that to the public? I think by doing what he has done.
Query- Suppose you were absolutely convinced that doing anything in Iraq was a bad idea. You go on TV and tell us that there is nothing we can do, so we will just wait and watch. What likely follows?
Steve
Forgot. Remember that Noonan’s idea of good judgment is doing what the GOP wants. Do you really want McCain and Butters (or their clones) running our foreign policy again?
Steve
You don’t do that. You persuade. Tirelessly. Ceaselessly. The American people are predisposed to trust their presidents. Yes, there are some people who are unpersuadeable. But some are.
The thing is, the President isn’t standing for reelection. I understand the domestic political argument, but is he really that invested in the Senate/Congressional elections to let that run his foreign policy? I dunno. He should know that Congress will stay in GoP hands no matter what he does, so if there is a domestic political concern, it would have to be fear of Democrats losing control of the Senate. Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t see the current policy as helping Democrats much there.
Bah. You know what would happen. The GOP would jump on it. This is going to last a while no matter what. This hands the 2014 and 2016 elections to the GOP. So again, do you really want McCain and his clones running our foreign policy again?
Steve
It’s his core competency. People are strongly predisposed to keep doing things that have brought them success in the past.
In elections likely to be decided by a couple of percentage points it doesn’t have to be much. Yes, Andy. I’m thinking about the Senate. A Republican Senate is a mortal danger to the twilight days of the president’s second term.
“His essential problem is that he has very poor judgment.”
I disagree somewhat with Noonan in that I think this president lacks wisdom — something gleaned from life experience. IMO, being deprived of wisdom short-circuits the clarity needed to see through the fog of options that eventually leads to a decision based on sound judgment. And, even though having brilliance is attractive, it doesn’t necessarily offer extensive insight into complex issues — especially when goals of political advantage are heeded. After all, having a high intelligence only indicates one has good brain parts. However, those attaining wisdom cultivate — through hands-on practice, trial and error — the ability to put information together in ways achieving the best ends to a problem.
Remember that Noonan’s idea of good judgment is doing what the GOP wants.
Noonan has often been characterized as a RINO by the hard right because of her disagreements with republicans, especially Bush.
Noonan is part of the press ad admits as much in the piece. I can’t fault her for that.
This is one of your cogent comments, jan. I wish you’d put up a song selection for Music Friday. Mr. Dave needs a break from serious crap that he can’t do anything about today.
I think you are right about the politics but that’s not mutually exclusive to lack of wisdom. In fact, choosing policy based almost solely on domestic political considerations is itself very unwise because it always places short term goals and the appearance of doing something above the goals that should really matter.
The ebola virus and ISIS seem to have a troubling growth rate in common. The former is said to be doubling every three weeks,with speculation of a half million possibly becoming infected soon. The latter, ISIS, is massively recruiting disaffected Sunnis, having their numbers growing easily from 10,000, upwards to 31,000. Today, in fact, some are asserting that ISIS is not only depending on fighters voluntarily streaming into their ranks, but are also initiating a second source of increasing their size and strength — that of ‘drafting’ young men into the fight.
Dropping bombs on a bunch of barbarians while relying on allies to fight a police war on the ground is something American presidents have tried before, with varying success. Most recently, it’s what’s Bill Clinton did in Kosovo — a policy generally decried at the time, which actually turned out reasonably successfully.
I’d be surprised if Obama hasn’t reflected on that bit of history.
It was successful as long as you’re willing to occupy the country on an indefinite basis.
Most projections fail because they fail to take into account feedback loops. There are limits to growth, and this is why taking a growth rate and projecting it into the future fails. This is why any Malthusian arguments or pyramid schemes fail.
My 2000 Sentra takes a while to accelerate to 60 MPH, but if I kept my foot on the gas pedal, it would soon exceed the speed of light. This is nonsense because my wife would bitch the entire time.
Pathogens have an additional problem. They must not kill the host before being able to jump to another host. This is another problem with biological warfare. Predators have a similar problem.
ISIS has an additional problem. If your cause is sustained by chopping off heads, you cannot chop off all the heads on the first day, but if you do not chop off enough heads, you lose credibility. Once you find the sweet-spot, you become a TINO – Terrorist In Name Only.