Our Political Violence


The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project has compiled data on the political violence that has been wracking the U. S. since the end of May:

Applying ACLED’s rigorous methodology for monitoring political violence and demonstration activity around the world, the US Crisis Monitor collects data in real-time and publishes weekly updates to inform research, journalism, policymaking, and civil society initiatives. Drawing on more than 1,500 national, regional, and local sources, the first data release comprises over 1,800 total events, including over 1,790 demonstration events and over 10 political violence events, as well as 20 strategic development events that provide additional insight into potential changes to the political environment. Events are recorded in all 50 states and the District of Columbia during the three-week period from 14 June to 4 July 2020, ranging from nearly 200 in California to four in South Dakota. The vast majority of events are peaceful protests linked to the Black Lives Matter movement, which has led to a massive surge in demonstration activity across the country, with a total of nearly five times as many events recorded per week relative to ACLED’s US pilot project last summer. New data tranches will be released at the start of each week covering the previous week and supplemented with historical data for 2020 as available.

It looks like a good resource to me.

11 comments… add one
  • Drew Link

    Perhaps. Maybe for raw data. But perspective, I’m not so sure. They lost me at this:

    “The vast majority of events are peaceful protests linked to the Black Lives Matter movement, which has led to a massive surge in demonstration activity…….”

    That’s a nonsense statistic. In Bluffton we had a gathering of a couple dozen or so people on Buckwalter Pkwy with signs saying Black Lives Matter. Honk if you support. Etc. OK. We also have a crazy lady who dances around at an intersection with a sign, almost every day, singing BLM. Put it in the database. Its technically accurate. Not exactly a real picture of events. More like reporting on a bake sale.

    I looked at several of their pieces and quotations. A more relevant and revealing statistic: “95% of violent protests are related to BLM.”

    I’ll bet that residents of Portland, LA, Seattle, Kenosha, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, NYC, Atlanta………….would not be impressed or illuminated by the former statistic. But I bet CNN would give it high praise. “Fiery but peaceful.”

  • steve Link

    This link also has more details. They record 570 instances of violence, a lot. They also note dozens of instances of cars ramming into protestors. I can think of that only being covered once or twice. They note that pandemic protests outnumbered BLM protests in August. I had not idea that was happening on such a scale. Clashes between protestors and counter protestors are resulting in violence.

    Of note, I can find any statistics on deaths and killings. Maybe it is hidden somewhere. I remain doubtful that the numbers approach the 60s.

    Steve

  • steve Link
  • Greyshambler Link

    I don’t find the violence to be logical. Football games on the weekends will tone it down IMO.

  • PD Shaw Link

    This study (which uses ACLE data among other sources) estimates that “as a result of de-policing during June and July 2020, approximately 710 additional victims were murdered and more than 2,800 victims were shot. Of course, this estimate relies on various assumptions, and further research on the issues surrounding the homicide spikes should be an urgent priority.”

    The line graphs showing shootings/homicides in places like Chicago are pretty convincing — both rose dramatically after the start of protests. Also, this: “Of the Chicago homicide spike victims, 94% were Black or Latino.”

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3690473

  • I suspect that the release of prisoners from Cook County has been a factor in the increased number of homicides. FWIW absent black on black and Latino on Latino homicides, homicides in the U. S. are about the same as in many European countries.

  • steve Link

    From PD’s paper.

    “Given the timing of the homicide spikes, one possibility is that the homicides themselves came as a result of the protests, such as from shootings during the protests or by protesters or counter-protesters. This possibility can be quickly dismissed. By all accounts, the vast majority of the protests were peaceful.35 The Rosenfeld-Lopez Study, for example, notes that while some violence has been directly connected to protest activities, in most cases the shooting crimes appear to have involved perpetrators other than the protesters.36 Virtually all of the homicides that are occurring are taking place away from the demonstrations. The crime maps published by many cities show homicides are not in city centers where anti-police protests are happening, but rather in low-income neighborhoods outside of those city centers.37”

    It looks like the direct number of deaths from protests in riots from the 60s will far outweigh our current ones. We dont really have data like this that I can find for homicide rates that otherwise increased in the city. We do know that crime and homicide rates in general increased after the 60s riots. That was part of the overall trend that lead to crime peaking around 1990.

    Note that this article claims that the evidence suggests changes in policing are responsible for the increase in homicides.

    Steve

  • I don’t know about the situations in Portland, Seattle, New York, or Los Angeles but the major increase in homicides this year in Chicago have not been associated with the demonstrations or the riots. They’re occurring in the same neighborhoods in which they did last year. There are just more of them.

    The looting here is plain old fashioned crime as well.

  • Jason K Link

    So, everyone needs to go read the “Violence against Civilians” notes they are mainly biased and highlight situations of valid police interactions where people were arrested. The “Battle” data is also biased, adding in data in the notes that is not currently regarded as fact. Regretfully this brings the whole site into question in my mind.

  • Greyshambler Link

    “absent black on black and Latino on Latino homicides, homicides in the U. S. are about the same as in many European countries.“

    Makes me nostalgic for the days of my youth, and peace.

  • I hasten to add that the prevalence of homicides among rural white and rural blacks is about the same. The difference appears to be the role of gangs in urban black society.

Leave a Comment