George Stephanopoulos suggested (perhaps a little too gleefully) this morning on GMA that the Second Term Curse may have taken hold of the Bush Administration.
I haven’t been too interested in the various political scandals afflicting Republicans and the Bush Administration recently. Tom DeLay has always seemed like a son-of-a-gun to me so I can’t be too sorrowful about his troubles whether they’re self-inflicted or not. Bill Frist has always seemed like a suit to me but I’ve been impressed by his charitable activities using his professional expertise (politics is not a profession; it’s a craft). And whatever discomfiture comes to Karl Rove as a result of the Pflame contretemps seems at too great a remove from any real consequences for me to work up much interest in it.
It seems to me that there are several possible outcomes for all of these various goings-on:
- The scandals will go all the way to the top and bring down the Bush Administration.
Watergate II. Frankly, I had enough the first time around. This may be a dream for Democratic activists but unless there’s a little more substance this is just dreaming. At this point it looks as though there’s not even much smoke let alone fire.
- The scandals will sufficiently taint Republicans so that Democrats will make big gains in the mid-term elections.
This, too, I think, is a dream. Politics is local and local races will be decided on local issues. Even DeLay is popular in his own district and that’s all that’s important in the House. It would take more than a few seats swinging their way for Dems to take control of either house of Congress. More likely it will just slow Republican gains. That’s not much of a reason for dancing in the streets.
- Republicans will be at least as successful at throwing mud on the Democrats as vice versa and both parties succeed in making themselves look like self-serving crooks.
More disillusionment with politics. That’s what we need.
Frankly, I think this is probably the most likely outcome. A wash. Can anyone successfully portray the Texas Democratic Party as a reform party? California? Certainly not Illinois—Governor Blagojevich is having problems of his own and, well, Daleys will be Daleys. The Clinton Administration had its strengths and weaknesses but they ran as a reform ticket. Didn’t succeed in doing much reforming, IIRC.
- Republicans are successful in painting Democrats as the villains in these various scandals.
Actually, I think that’s a little far-fetched, too. But it appears to be the line that Republican activists are taking.
Those look like the most likely options to me.
So I’m willing to sit on the sidelines and wait for events to take their course, wishing it all would just go away.
