Not a Seasonal Increase

The editors of the Wall Street Journal point out that the number of ‘encounters” at our southern border last month represented a substantial increase over the number in the same month of 2019:

The White House has tried to pass off the migrant surge at the U.S.-Mexico border as nothing more than a routine seasonal sojourn. “It happens every year,” President Biden said in a news conference last month. New York Rep. Ritchie Torres called the crisis “more of a cyclical occurrence than a unique consequence of the Biden Administration policy.”

Bad timing, as the latest data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows. CBP said this week that there were more than 172,300 encounters with migrants on the Southwest border in March, a 71% increase over February. That’s up from 103,731 in March 2019 and 50,347 in March 2018.

That includes a record 18,890 unaccompanied children, compared to 9,380 in March 2019 and 5,244 in March 2018. CBP also reported 53,623 encounters with family units last month, a 173% increase over February and the most since the peak of the 2019 border crisis. In 2020 the pandemic kept numbers low.

There is a seasonal element to this, but the current surge is a much more serious spike related to the incentives provided by Biden Administration rhetoric and policy. The U.S. now expels single adults under a pandemic emergency measure known as Title 42, but it allows children who cross the border illegally alone to stay. The Biden Administration has also released into the U.S. large numbers of families who crossed the border illegally with young children. Migrant parents recognize this as a chance to gain entry.

U.S. facilities for housing migrants are overcrowded and the border patrol is overwhelmed. The humanitarian crisis will continue to worsen unless the policy incentives change.

I would add that circumstances matter as well. In March 2019 the U. S. unemployment rate was 3.8%; now it’s 6% and some of the sectors in which it’s hardest to get jobs are the same ones in which these migrant job-seekers will be seeking employment. Additionally, immigrants represented 13.8% of the population in 2019. Now they represent more than 14%.

7 comments… add one
  • steve Link

    There is a seasonal component but it doesnt seem to match month for month. Look at past peaks. In 2019 it peaked in May at 132,000. From memory I think the number for kids was about 16,000.

    Steve

  • An easily testable hypothesis. We’ll know at the end of May. If May 2021 has a lower number of, er, encounters than May 2019 that hypothesis looks likely.

  • steve Link

    https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/03/15/migrant-apprehensions-at-u-s-mexico-border-are-surging-again/

    I still dont see you or the Trump supporters explaining why the increase started last April. The question is two parts. Is this a major increase different than increases in the past? The 2014 surge had a peak month of about 60,000. The peak in 2019 was over twice as big. Are we going to it more than double again? The second question is why it is happening. The refusal to even address why it started in 2014 makes it clear that people just want to blame this all on Biden and really interested in the cause.

    Steve

  • I still dont see you or the Trump supporters explaining why the increase started last April.

    As Rob Portman said in his RCP piece (which I have said myself), there are both push and pull factors. The push factors started increasing in April; the pull factors began to increase in June 2019.

    And I’ve already answered the second part of your question. There are millions more immigrants, particularly lower-skilled immigrants in the U. S. than there were two years ago. The U. S. has a carrying capacity and it’s being strained.

  • steve Link

    “As Rob Portman said in his RCP piece (which I have said myself), there are both push and pull factors. The push factors started increasing in April; the pull factors began to increase in June 2019.”

    And they get little attention in any discussion. They dont even get enumerated. Just some vague hand waving to acknowledge they exist, then on to blaming Biden. We have no idea where this peaks and Biden does bear some responsibility but it remains remarkable how unwilling you and the conservatives are to even acknowledge that things were not that different (yet) in 2019 but you weren’t writing articles back then about a crisis and you still promote pieces that avoid any but the vaguest discussion of other factors.

    Steve

  • Biden does bear some responsibility

    That’s all I’m saying.

    As to the rest I believe that practically everything is multi-factorial. The world isn’t as simple as most people and most politicians in particular would lead you to believe.

    For example, I think the prevalence of COVID-19 is multi-factorial and that policy is certainly not the most important factor. If that were not the case why is the prevalence in Missouri (which does not have a mask mandate) lower than in Illinois (which does)? Clearly, population behavior, density, demographics, etc. play roles. There’s also an element of pure dumb luck.

    The greatest number and greatest readership/viewership among major media outlets (NYT, WaPo, ABC TV, CBS TV, NBC TV) are clearly highly reluctant to attribute any accountability to Biden. I think he was reckless in what he said about illegal immigration during the campaign.

  • Drew Link

    It’s common sense that the pull factors jumped under Biden. He invited them. His words. No doubt his intent.

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