If 2014 will be a wave election, the generic ballot polling results certainly aren’t showing it. That the conclusion of Larry Sabato’s highly respected Crystal Ball:
Democrats would need a very substantial lead on the pre-election generic ballot surveys, something in the vicinity of 12 to 14 points, to have a good chance of gaining the 17 House seats needed to regain control of the chamber. At this point, that appears highly unlikely — no nonpartisan poll in the past year has shown a double-digit Democratic lead on the generic ballot. Moreover, no party holding the White House has gained anywhere near 17 seats in a midterm election in the past century. It seems highly unlikely that 2014 will see such a result. On the other hand, it also appears highly unlikely that Republicans will be able to significantly increase the size of their House majority in November. Right now, the most likely outcome of the House elections would appear to be a near standoff.
I strongly suspect that the president’s pollsters are telling him the same thing: he can’t expect to work with a Democratically-controlled House in 2015. That’s the reason behind the “if I can’t do it with you, I’ll do it without you” tone of his remarks for the last few months.
The real battle will be for the Senate. To win the Senate Republicans would need to win all the races they look likely to win at this point and either win at least two of the races that are toss-ups right now or win some races they’re not expected to win. My hipshot reaction is that Republicans are likely to fall just short of that, taking 49 or 50 seats in the Senate, not enough to control that house of Congress.