All is proceeding as I have foreseen. 50 years ago one of the founders of Intel, Gordon Moore, predicted that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits would double every year for the foreseeable future. After 1975 he pulled back on that prediction to every two years. He’s been right. Along with its many, many fortunate consequences that has had two unfortunate consequences. People think it will go on forever which is likely not to be the case. And people think it pertains to all technology. That is eminently and obviously not the case.
There is no Moore’s Law for batteries and that has serious implications for electric cars:
A couple of years ago BMW, which is leading the way with battery-only i3 and i8 plug-in hybrid vehicles, said within four to five years electric cars will have twice the current power and double the range. BMW board member Ian Robertson added then, that in the next three to four years there will be more progress in battery development than in the previous 100 years.
Not much sign of that and time is running out.
It may be that there is some great breakthrough in batteries just around the corner and that will allow brilliant new things in electric cars. Or we may have already reached the acme of electric car technology.