Speaking of Taiwan you may find this piece by Charu Sudan Kasturi at OZY analyzing President Xi’s recent moves, especially as they relate to Taiwan, interesting. I agree with this passage:
What better way to get people to rally around the flag and the leader than to create the threat of an external enemy? China knew that its proposed law for Hong Kong would spark criticism and threats of punishment from the West. That in turn allows Beijing to paint the U.S. as a villain looking to erode China’s sovereignty over Hong Kong.
China is doubling down on this approach, with tensions also rising along its largely disputed border with India, where New Delhi has accused the People’s Liberation Army of repeated infiltration over the past week. It’s a growing crisis that the West has largely ignored so far, but fits in with Beijing’s overall posture these past few days.
but there’s a considerable portion of it about which I am skeptical. For example:
But Beijing’s moves aren’t only about Hong Kong. Its real target is Taiwan, and political legitimacy in mainland China for President Xi Jinping, whose credibility has taken a beating over his handling of the coronavirus crisis.
The reason that I am skeptical is reflected later in the piece:
China is doubling down on this approach, with tensions also rising along its largely disputed border with India, where New Delhi has accused the People’s Liberation Army of repeated infiltration over the past week. It’s a growing crisis that the West has largely ignored so far, but fits in with Beijing’s overall posture these past few days.
I find the notion that provoking tensions along the China-India border, cracking down on Hong Kong, and saber-rattling against Taiwan are all focused on Taiwan. I don’t think they’re three different things but all the same thing—increased aggression coupled with a sense of urgency.
Which brings me to this:
For all its bluster, China knows it can’t hope to regain Taiwan as a part of the motherland anytime soon. But it also can’t afford to see the self-ruled territory gain greater diplomatic weight. So it’s responding with its own stern messages — both direct and indirect.
I wonder what would lead him to say that? I don’t think that China is sending messages. I think it’s moving to reclaim what it sees as its rightful property.
If my suspicions are right, expect China to start rattling its saber in the direction of Vladivostok. There may even be a pretext as, for example, trying to prevent the spread of COVID-19 into its northeastern province.
Maybe Xi sees this as an opportunity of a lifetime.
Look at the state of things.
The US Navy is crippled from COVID
US Cities are high on tension; Minneapolis is on fire
Hong Kong protesters are stuck at home due to COVID
India is in lockdown from COVID
In general, as the source of 85% of the world’s PPE China is in a strong position.
I concur these decisions are risky and dangerous (in the long term). But the opportunities (for Xi) are very real….
I see the greater risk as being to China’s relationship with Russia. Both parties recognize that the relationship is not sustainable—their goals are incompatible.
Vladivostok is not a target. China needs a friendly Russia for all sorts of economic, technological, and strategic reasons. A hostile Russia is (or should be) China’s worst nightmare. Of course, national leaders are often capable of lunacy, as Hitler’s Operation Barbarossa showed.
The move to reign in Hong Kong makes a kind of nationalist sense. The move against India makes no sense. India is desirable to secure and enhance OBOR and the SCO. But Afghanistan and Pakistan are necessary. So, perhaps China’s incursions in the Himalayas are connected to the recent clashes (on-going) between India and Pakistan. A sign to India to backoff in Kashmir.
We should also remember, which Kasturi seems not to, that we are now in an actual trade war with China, and we are seeking to destroy Huawei, one of the crown jewels of China’s economy, even in China itself. Maybe the move against India is a warning to us.
Taiwan will eventually be incorporated into China. That will happen no matter what kind of government China has in the future, and regardless of what the Taiwanese or we want.
I am skeptical there will be conflict between China and Russia while Xi and Putin are in charge.
I see all the saber rattling as a tactic to try and unify the Han behind Xi against foreign devils. A tactic almost as old as mankind. You only engage in foreign adventures when you feel certain you will win (even if you’re wrong) or desperate not to lose power.
I suspect the encroachment on India has to do with mineral resources as much as for domestic consumption.
An attempt to reincorporate the Trans-Amur provinces of Russia would be insanely stupid, not only do the Han badly need Putin’s resources but Vladimir is unlikely to just watch it happen without an over-the-top reaction. We’re talking nuclear exchange here.
I do not see Taiwan becoming part of China without major force or coercion. Xi will try to conquer Taiwan only if he feels it is the only way he can stay in power. An amphibious landing in force would be very risky and more importantly with today’s overhead surveillance it would be impossible to disguise the build-up. Threatening Taiwan with nukes or else would be catastrophic for China in innumerable ways. Threatening to cut off trade with any countries who trade with Taiwan would be almost as bad.
Pretty much my point. I think that an attempt by China to reincorporate Taiwan forcibly would be insanely stupid but I also wouldn’t be a bit surprised if it happened. Xi may need it to happen to retain his hold on power.