Never Tell Me the Odds!

At Rolling Stone Matt Taibbi scoffs at the pundits who say that Bernie Sanders is out of the running for the Democratic presidential nomination:

These stories are not based on anything. They’re space-filling guesses usually grounded in some grumbling personal complaint the outlet or pundit in question has about whatever politician they’re trashing.

It’s an annoying and condescending kind of campaign reportage. What makes it particularly ridiculous is that a lot of the people doing it were part of an epic face plant on the horse race front four years ago.

The across-the-board failed prognostications of last election season were a thing to behold. They constituted one of the larger industry-wide failures in a journalism business that has seen a few of them since the Iraq fiasco. Literally every major news outlet called the 2016 election wrong.

He has a point. Many of the pundits got 2016 wrong but the polls and more serious analysts actually got it largely right. Anything can happen, I suppose, but I do not believe that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for president for one, simple reason. Everything we know about the process and the individuals who govern the process tells us that it’s rigged. Not only is it rigged but it’s rigged in a manner specifically tailored to prevent Sanders or a candidate like him from winning.

I think that Sanders will get some delegates. He may even win the plurality of delegates in some states. But he will also not win any delegates in many states because he won’t get 15% of the vote. As of this writing the only candidate positioned to win enough delegates is Joe Biden.

1 comment… add one
  • TastyBits Link

    I am not sure what this is all about, but I am sure it is wrong.

    Democrats do not support delegates or winner take all. They support a proportional voting system. They have been ranting for two years about the Electoral College.

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