Not wanting to be squeezed out of the day’s news, North Korea has said it will conduct a nuclear test soon:
SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea said Tuesday it will conduct a nuclear test in the face of what it claimed was “the U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war,” ratcheting up tensions amid international pressure to return to negotiations on its atomic program.
The United States warned a North Korean nuclear test “would pose an unacceptable threat to peace and stability.” South Korea raised its security level, and Japan promised a severe response if the threat was carried out.
The statement from Pyongyang gave no precise date for a test, but the prospect that North Korea could soon take a major step forward in its nuclear weapons development triggered alarm and condemnation in foreign capitals, including Russia and the European Union. North Korea has a recent history of making provocative statements while refraining from an all-out confrontation with its chief enemy, the United States.
It’s completely understandable that North Korea should take such a stance considering the extreme provocation that the U. S. has offered. After all, we’ve seized their naval vessels on the high seas and imprisoned their crews, counterfeited their currency, flung missiles at their allies in testing exercises, and sold nuclear and missile technology to anyone with cash. Oh, sorry. That’s what North Korea has been doing over the years.
If North Korea goes ahead and conducts this test it will be interesting to see what the response of the Chinese is. As I see it it will constitute another major loss of face on their part.
UPDATE: The BBC has posted what they characterize as a summary of the North Korean statement here.
I dont really buy this. For one, its increasingly clear that NK’s strategy has been to rattle the cage, await placation by new concessions, and then rinse, repeat. The problem is that the chest thumping must escalate for each round. If they are already at “we are gonna test a nuke” then that means they are really desperate.
They don’t dare test a nuke. China would disapprove. strongly.
I tend to be chary of “they wouldn’t dare”. The position tends to discount downside risk too much.
I agree with you that stirring the pot has been North Korea’s strategy for a while now. The Chinese clearly disapproved of the last round of what for lack of a better word we’ll call “missile testing” (missile exploding might be more apt). The North Koreans tested anyway.
I don’t think that a North Korean nuclear weapon’s test is the end of the world. I think there would in all probability be three immediate consequences. First, the Chinese would do more than just talk. Second, the Japanese would probably begin their own nuclear weapons program (assuming they don’t already have one). Should take about six months for them to have a working weapon.
Finally, I suspect that the North Koreans will be deluged with orders.