Writing at The Atlantic Jeffrey Goldberg considers how we would know if liberalizing our relations with Cuba is successful or not?
Here is my modest Plaza de Armas test: If, in two years, the booksellers on the plaza are selling books about something other than Che, and if they’re making actual money selling more of what they want to sell, then the argument that engagement leads to openness will look credible. I’m not expecting anything close to perfect freedom—I’d be surprised, in two years, to find Marco Rubio’s memoir for sale on the plaza—but I’ll go looking for some proof that change is actually happening. Internet connectivity, the release of political prisoners, the establishment of non-government newspapers—these are bigger tests. But the plaza test will be telling nonetheless.
Here’s my yardstick. If Cuban-Americans start travelling to Cuba in significant numbers to visit family members there, bringing with them consumer goods and stories of their lives in the United States, and those Cuban families start taking notice, the policy of liberalization will have been a success. IMO that’s the greatest danger to the present Cuban regime and we should keep our eyes open for pushback from the regime on it.
The one thing lacking in all current discussions of Cuba’s win is the matter of compensating all the folks who had their property and businesses confiscated by Castro some 50 years ago.
Patrick Buchanan gives his own overview of Obama’s new Cuban policy. One of his most provocative questions was:
Buchanan does entertain the possibility that tourists and relatives traveling to Cuba might provide a healthy contrast for Cubans to contemplate — as to the merits and lifestyle upgrades a free society has compared to that of a rigidly Castro-controlled one. However, it has also been acknowledged that Asia, Latin America, and Europe has traded with Cuba for years, and none of the monies generated by these friendlier relationships has translated to a better life for the common man in Cuba. Instead the money has gone to the government, increasing it’s prowess. Some say, the same will happen should American money start to flow into their economy — probably right into the hands of the military.
That’s pretty much my take, Schuler. I think there is a significantly better chance of more travel by Americans to Cuba impacting Cuba’s political scene than there was for commercialization to have an impact in places like Vietnam or China.