It’s a little early, the first Democratic presidential candidate debates being a month away, but I thought I’d put down a marker. The following candidates will not get a majority of the primary votes in their home states:

  • Michael Bennet
  • Steve Bullock
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Julián Castro
  • Bill de Blasio
  • John Delaney
  • Tulsi Gabbard
  • Mike Gravel
  • Kamala Harris
  • Jay Inslee
  • Wayne Messam
  • Seth Moulton
  • Beto O’Rourke
  • Tim Ryan
  • Marianne Williamson
  • Andrew Yang

Of the candidates not in the list above, some (e.g. Biden, Sanders, Warren) will probably win some states and some (e.g. Booker, Hickenlooper) I just can’t assess whether they have enough support to win their home states.

As to those in the list above, is it possible they could win states other than their home states? It’s possible but I wouldn’t count on it.

12 comments… add one
  • Andy Link

    I’ve never been too crazy about Biden, but if the race is really between him, Sanders and Warren, then I really hope he wins.

    The dark “watch the world burn” side of me secretly wishes for a Sanders- Trump race though.

  • At the moment I think the odds favor Biden-Harris vs. Trump-Pence (although Trump-Haley would be interesting).

  • Guarneri Link

    I’m with Dave in comments. However, I’d watch Mayor Pete. He has that Obama quality to speak and sound profound while saying absolutely nothing. Smooth, but empty.

  • jan Link

    I think Buttigieg is an unknown – perhaps even a sleeper candidate. He could unexpectedly win some states.

  • jan Link

    Drew you and I often think alike. It’s uncanny….

  • TastyBits Link

    If I understand correctly, the Democrats want Joe Biden to run against President trump because he can win back the Trump Democrats, and if I am still getting it, the Trump Democrats would not vote for Hillary Clinton because they are racist, misogynistic, homophobic, xenophobic, etc.

    So, Joe Biden as the Democrat candidate will win back their racist, misogynistic, homophobic, xenophobic, etc. voters. The late Sen. Byrd, wearing his finest klan robes, must be looking up from hell and smiling, and Satan must be looking at him with envy.

  • Guarneri Link


    Don’t tell anyone at OTB. That’s an instant dozen down thumbs…….
    I know, you are probably crushed.


    Heh. Their “logic” was always bizarre.

  • steve Link

    “So, Joe Biden as the Democrat candidate will win back their racist, misogynistic, homophobic, xenophobic, etc. voters.”

    Nope, you dont get it. Any persuadable voter is not part of Trump’s core voter base.

    “He has that Obama quality to speak and sound profound while saying absolutely nothing.”

    Anything beyond “build the wall, drain the swamp and lock her up” probably comes across that way to you true believers.


  • Any persuadable voter is not part of Trump’s core voter base.

    What percentage of Democratic primary voters makes a distinction between persuadable voters and Trump’s core voter base?

  • TastyBits Link


    I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer. So, please go slow.

    If I understand correctly, voting for the most racist, misogynistic, homophobic, xenophobic, etc. candidate since the country was founded does not make one a racist, misogynistic, homophobic, xenophobic, etc.

    (This explains why a Democrat can be a kkk Exalted Cyclops but not be a racist. Yep, I think I got it, but how do progressives come up with such wondrous titles as Exalted Cyclops and Grand Wizard?)

    So, a Harris-Buttigieg ticket will get the same voters as a Biden-Bennet ticket? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

  • steve Link

    TB- OK, I will go to Red STATE or American Thinker and find the worst representatives of conservatives I can find, then come back here and assume that you believe the same things they believe…… OK, not really, I just dont think that way. So there really is a percentage of conservatives who are racist or inclined to look the other way on race issues. There really are some on the left who think all conservatives are racist. Bother of these groups are minorities. When do you see me ragging on about everyone on the right being racist? My friends dont do it either.

    So there is indeed a significant number of persuadable who will be accepted and most people arent going to consider them racist. And you know what else, most of those who scream racist all the time will be glad to have them back because power (winning the election) trump principle. Certainly have seen that with conservatives haven’t we? Remember when conservatives used to rag on about how character matters? Now they wholeheartedly support Trump. There is almost no cherished principle the right won’t give up in order to support Trump. Fortunately, Trump being rich, their favorite principle, tax cuts for the rich, is perfectly safe.


  • TastyBits Link


    You, the people you know, and many Democrats may not spend all day calling everybody racist, but the media, politicians, pundits, OTB, etc. alternate between calling President Trump racist and Trump supporters racist.

    I have no doubt that those calling everybody racist are only concerned with power, and as soon as President Trump is out of office, I expect the Republicans to revert to their historic positions on free-trade, open borders, and invasions.

    a) There are Democrats who believe most Trump voters are racist.

    b) They believe that Joe Biden can beat President Trump by winning back Trump voters.

    c) They believe that a woman, racial minority, gay person, or any combination cannot get elected because Trump voters are misogynistic, racist, homophobic, or all three.

    Therefore, the logical conclusion is that Joe Biden can become president by getting more racist voters than President Trump.

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