Losing Air Superiority

Here’s an article at Voice of America suggesting that the U. S., which has relied on air superiority in most of its recent major military operations, may be on the verge of losing that superiority with respect to China:

For decades, the United States military has benefited from having air superiority over its enemies in all its conflicts around the world. The Pentagon’s multibillion-dollar investment in advanced warplanes, weapons systems, satellites and aircraft carriers has made air power a central part of America’s global projection of military might.

However, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly modernizing, and military leaders and analysts say that Washington may no longer be able to always rely on its air superiority.

Speaking at an Air Force Association conference last month, General Charles Brown Jr., chief of staff of the Air Force, said the PLA had what he called “the largest aviation forces in the Pacific” and had developed them “underneath our nose.” Brown predicted China could overcome U.S. air superiority by 2035.

At the same event, Lieutenant General S. Clinton Hinote, a deputy chief of staff, warned that the U.S. was not keeping pace with China’s advancements. “In a few important areas, we’re behind — tonight. This is not a tomorrow problem. This is a today.”

Hinote told reporters that as somebody who was aware of the evidence at all classification levels, he believed that China had caught up with the U.S. air power advancements, and he warned “the light is blinking red.”

and that China already has “local air superiority”. There’s also substantial evidence that the U. S. may lose naval superiority to China by 2030.

One thing is certain: we can’t depend on maintaining air superiority by virtue of technology without substantially more digital security that we have at present. Any new developments will simply be stolen and copied.

My own view is that we should be devoting serious attention to refurbishing our military capacity after 20 years of (in my view) excessive and futile utilization. I think we should be de-emphasizing land forces in favor of first enhanced and improved naval capability and second enhanced and improved air capability.

It’s going to require an enormous shift in attitude to come to terms with the new global reality. I have little confidence in the ability of our political leadership regardless of party to make the necessary adjustments.

5 comments… add one
  • walt moffett Link

    Since this was on VOA, wonder if its part of an effort to calm the Chinese hardliners. Agree a series of very hard decisions need to be made, yet will not be.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    The nuclear threat has averted such large power conflict for 75 years now.
    History suggests this is not permanent.
    Barring accidents or irrational moves it’s the development of the ABM defense systems that are upsetting strategic planners .
    No matter how good Chinese air power becomes it’s irrational for them to bet the farm on an all out attack on ours and vice versa.

  • jan Link

    What about China’s test drive of a hypersonic nuclear-capable missile that encircled the world, only missing it’s target by 24 miles? Supposedly it “stunned” our military experts.

  • Andy Link

    A lot depends on geography. I think we lost the ability to achieve air superiority over mainland China a long time ago. Air superiority where? And to what level? And for how long?

    Since Vietnam, the US has actually enjoyed air supremacy in our conflicts – meaning that our enemies have had no significant ability to impede our own air operations or conduct their own.

  • My question is a naïve one: has our general staff adjusted to the changing reality? I know our political leadership has not.

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