Returning to the issue we discussed yesterday raised by Fareed Zakaria, while I have no problem in principle with sending vaccines to other countries and think we should focus our attention on this hemisphere, I do take exception to his “blame America first” attitude and, more importantly, I think the issue is actually more complex than he makes it.
I already pointed out the “infrastructure” issue, i.e. the limited ability of many of these countries to store vaccines adequately once received but that’s not the only impediment. For example, whatever you think of “vaccine hesitancy” in the United States it is a significantly greater issue in African and Latin American countries than it is here see here, here, and here. It’s not entirely surprising. Many African and Latin American countries tend to be what are called “low trust” countries, i.e. they don’t trust each other, they don’t trust their own governments, and in particular they don’t trust us.
There is an additional complication. The premise of Mr. Zakaria’s piece is that the omicron variant originated in South Africa and spread from there to other places in Africa, Europe, and Asia. Did it? We just don’t know. I found this article at Science by Kai Kipperschmidt illuminating in that regard. The omicron variant is different in the extreme from other variants:
That raises the question of where Omicron’s predecessors lurked for more than a year. Scientists see essentially three possible explanations: The virus could have circulated and evolved in a population with little surveillance and sequencing. It could have gestated in a chronically infected COVID-19 patient. Or it might have evolved in a nonhuman species, from which it recently spilled back into people.
I think we should find that second alternative particularly disquieting suggesting as it does that modern medicine may actually have facilitated the mutation of a wildly divergent strain of the virus.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!”
Unfortunately, I believe it is more complicated than you describe. I am amazed at how scientists declare theory as truth when we don’t know the facts. The Omnicron variant is just the latest example of how such hasty declarations result in a further diminishment of trust around the world.
The vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, Jansen), while showing clinical benefits, are nevertheless flawed. You correctly pointed out the cold storage requirements as a challenge for less developed countries. The number of breakthrough cases suggest a waning efficacy with overall limited benefits within a year of vaccination without a booster.
The pandemic is a global problem. Unless ‘rich’ countries address infection and transmission in less developed countries, nothing is going to change unless we cut off our borders completely which is not a practical or economically viable option. Perhaps further R&D into a better solution is warranted.
I made that very point in 2Q2020.
From the very beginning of this “pandemic†many virologists have been saying “we are not going to vaccinate our way out of this virus,†suggesting that universal vaccination is not only futile, but can actually be damaging to the goal of extinguishing the COVID virus in a healthier more enduring manner.
Much like the survival of the fittest, viruses mutate in their attempts to stay alive and infectious to other hosts. By continually giving more jabs, the virus that escapes vaccine detection becomes more and more immune to being vanquished by the original vaccine. IOW, a growing resistance is cultivated to where the efficacy of these vaccines eventually becomes nil, likened to the overexposure of antibiotics leading to antibiotic resistance, having researchers scurrying around to create even more potent antibiotic drugs.
Somehow, though, many intelligent people continue to pin their hopes on quelling this global “plague†by distributing even greater quantities of vaccines to every inch of the world – including those areas who are doing much better than highly vaccinated countries, by using simple, inexpensive repurposed antivirals that have been around for decades. This closed-mindedness reminds me of a perfect example fitting the definition of insanity.
I assume you are referring to this.
“It could have gestated in a chronically infected COVID-19 patient. ”
There are people with compromised immune systems that are not the result of medical care but most probably are from medical interventions. South Africa is a mix of modern medicine and poorly cared for people. They do have a fair amount of AIDS. Could have come from an untreated AIDS pt or a poorly treated one. Regardless, I dont think the answer is to stop treating people, stop transplants. etc.
Steve
I don’t, either. The point is that care may present new unforeseen risks.