As reported by the Paul Kirby at the BBC, here are the priorities of the incoming Italian prime minister:
Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain’s far-right Vox party: “Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology… no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration… no to big international finance… no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!”
That sounds like her election is a shot across the bow of the European Union. Italy’s GDP is about $1.9 trillion. Less than France’s to be sure but enormously more than Greece’s or Hungary’s. The Italians have leverage that the other “PIGS” (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain), the major debtor nations in the EU, do not.
Brussels, i.e. the EU, is the main force that has created the flood of immigrants that brought Ms. Meloni to power. I don’t see any way that the new Italian government can push back on mass immigration without pushing back on the EU. BTW the “big international finance” referred to are mostly French, German, Luxembourgish, and Spanish investors. The election was a warning shot to them as well.
Looking at Italian finance twitter (for some reason there’s a disproportionate share of finance commentators that are Italian) — they were uniformly skeptical that Ms Meloni will be able to do much.
She didn’t promise to leave the Euro or the EU; she is fully onboard with supporting Ukraine (despite Italy being one of the most skeptical nations of NATO involvement in the war).
Given Italy is dependent on ECB financing of its debt; what leverage does Ms Meloni have to change anything in Brussels.
There’s an old saw. When you owe the bank $100,000 the bank owns you. When you owe the bank $100,000,000 you own the bank. Greece was in the first situation; Italy is in the second.
Also, have you noticed how small a proportion of Italy’s debt the ECB holds?
Kinda attractive though, don’t you think?