Investigate the Bank Failures

I want to concur with Luigi Zingales’s obseraations at City Journal that there needs to be an investigation of the bank failures:

Resilient institutions cannot be brought down by the failure of just one individual, even the CEO. In fact, banks have a number of important gatekeepers. The failure of these banks suggests that all these gatekeepers failed together. If we want to restore trust in the system, we need to understand why. Only an authoritative presidential commission can do so.

The first gatekeepers to be investigated are the boards of SVB and Signature Bank, which are responsible for ensuring that bank risks are properly managed. They were not. In June 2019, Delaware’s supreme court held that the board members of Blue Bell Creameries should be personally liable for losses the company suffered following a deadly listeria outbreak because they did not create a board-level process to oversee mission-critical risks for the company. Why should the same not happen to bank board members when the bank they supervise fails to adopt such basic risk-management techniques as hedging interest-rate risk?

The second gatekeeper to be investigated should be the auditors. On February 24, KPMG signed the audit report of Silicon Valley Bank. On March 1, it signed the audit report for Signature Bank. By law, auditors must state whether they have any doubt about a company’s ability to survive over the next year. In both cases, KPMG expressed no doubts. Within two weeks, both banks failed. If auditors are unable to detect fraud or risk, what are they paid for?

The last and most important gatekeeper to be investigated is the Fed. The knee-jerk reaction of many liberal commentators was to blame former president Donald Trump for these bank failures. Under Trump’s administration, midsize banks like SVB were exempted from the duty to conduct a stress test. If this relaxation did not occur, the claim goes, SVB’s risk would have been identified much sooner. This claim is false, however. As Nobel laureate Douglas Diamond clearly stated in the latest episode of Capitalisn’t, a podcast that I co-host, SVB would have passed the stress test with flying colors. The 2022 stress test did not evaluate banks’ exposure to the possibility of significant interest-rate increases. If the Fed did not fail in its role as regulator for lack of instruments, then why did it fail?

to which Aaron Klein at Brookings adds:

I count at least four classic red flags of the bank’s conduct that should have sent the alarm bells ringing, which the Fed appears to have slept through.

  1. Explosive asset growth.…
  2. Hyper reliance on uninsured deposits.…
  3. Huge interest rate risk. …
  4. Dash for cash to the Federal Home Loan Bank.…

Each of these red flags should have triggered greater scrutiny from the Federal Reserve. Combined, they become a red laser beam screaming for greater scrutiny. After all, SVB is not a Main Street bank and never was. Regional banks of its size ($200B) have around 1,000 branches: SVB had 16. This does not even include more potential red flags about the relationship between SVB’s venture capital arm and the bank’s customer base, a potential red flag the Fed’s regulation of the bank holding company should have analyzed.

He characterizes the Fed as “asleep at the switch”. That seems to be happening a lot lately. Allowing the Federal Reserve to investigate itself is insufficient. There needs to be a Congressional if not White House level investigation.

Not only is it important that the interests and responsibilities of bank management, boards of directors, the banks’ auditors, and the Federal Reserve need to be consistent and aligned, so do the interests and responsibilities of shareholders and stockholders in the banks.

There’s a sort of Spiderman rule here: with great covering of uninsured deposits comes great oversight.

6 comments… add one
  • steve Link

    I think he has the order correct. Bank management, including the board, bears primary responsibility. They were also the primary beneficiaries if things went well. The auditors is a good point I had not thought much about.

    I do think the claim that the bank would have passed a stress test that never occurred is pretty speculative. It hardly seems beyond the pale that during there stress test it might have been noted that interest rate risks weren’t actually hedged well, but we will never know.

    “Explosive asset growth.…
    Hyper reliance on uninsured deposits.…
    Huge interest rate risk. …
    Dash for cash to the Federal Home Loan Bank.…

    Does the Fed monitor these things at all? Can they if they want?

    Steve

  • Drew Link

    I concur with the observations completely.

  • TastyBits Link

    I am confused. If a bank is not required to hold 100% reserves for uninsured demand deposits, how will it stop a bank run?

    Also, could somebody provide an objective definition of acceptable risk.

    I am not a fan of the Modern Monetary System (MMS) or the financial industry, but I fail to understand how an investment bank conducting retail banking is able to get an investor level ROI and be as safe as a commercial bank was 30 years ago.

    Honestly, dousing yourself with gasoline and taking a smoke break is a really bad idea, no matter how many auditors declare it sound.

    (Yes, I fully understand that it is the fumes, not the liquid that ignites. So, you are probably not going to become a human torch, but it is still a bad idea.)

  • Drew Link

    “I am confused. If a bank is not required to hold 100% reserves for uninsured demand deposits, how will it stop a bank run?”

    I think you actually know the answer, Tasty. Bank runs, or large withdrawals, are in large part emotional decisions. Financial institutions routinely estimate anticipated withdrawal levels and act accordingly. The problem is spikes. 100% reserves at a bank are not required; but cushion is, not the bare minimum. Pension funds estimate withdrawal requirements and invest the balance. Endowments estimate withdrawal requirements, and invest the balance. Its a complicated process because of all the actuarial estimating, and the multiple asset classes in which they invest. But its not exotic. Its pure balancing of risk and return.

    “Also, could somebody provide an objective definition of acceptable risk.”

    Again, I think you know the answer: No. Its a continuum. Its expertise, experience and judgment. “Acceptable” risk has relevance in a number of venues. Your local banker should NOT be making PE investments. But I can. A 23 year old should be allocating a disproportionate portion of their portfolio in equities. A 70 year old should not.

    People (erroneously) refer to buying and selling stocks as “speculating.” No. Some are. They are called traders. But the vast majority of activity is just a liquidity function as circumstances change. I’m always fascinated by people’s view of LBO’s. They think leverage is the big risk, even while the Average Joe’s 20% down mortgage is not. Actually, the big risk is illiquidity. You are absolutely stuck in an investment. You can’t decide you are tired of Apple stock and trade out of it in 5 minutes.

    “…I fail to understand how an investment bank conducting retail banking is able to get an investor level ROI and be as safe as a commercial bank was 30 years ago.”

    Why? Only if they do not have the requisite credit analysis skills (and those are relatively sophisticated skills) or consciously engage in extraordinary risk. SVB was a commercial bank, but clearly was not making standard issue C&I loans, but walking down the cap structure and taking on increasing risk.

  • TastyBits Link

    @Drew

    First, I try to stay away from using terms like “speculation” and “leverage”. They are emotionally loaded, but usually, I try to use them accurately. Unfortunately, defining terms precisely increases my already too long comments.

    I know what the answers should be, but it does not appear that many people understand the thrust of the questions. Your answers are from a PE Investor with personal experience in G-S commercial banking.

    Yes, I understand that mortgages are investments, and a 20% down payment is leverage. At some point, they become speculation and LBO’s, but that point is highly subjective and continually changing.

    People are going to engage in risky behaviour. Drug addicts are speculating that the junk they are injecting, snorting, and/or smoking is not fentanyl laced, and they are leveraging their life for a good time.

    Bankers, PE Investors, and Joe Sixpack are no different. I think you overestimate people’s ability to correctly assess risk. Many people who engage in any type of risky behaviour are actually risk averse, but they convince themselves that it is not risky.

    I suspect you are risk tolerant, but you understand that highly risky things can appear safe. You also understand that it can take a lot of research to find the risk and assess it. A lot of people could have made the same choices as you, but they did not. Some of them are more successful than you, but most are not.

    Apparently, the SVB people were not making the same choices you think they should, but a week before the run, you would have been tsk-tsked as an old fuddy-duddy. Unless they were psycho/sociopaths, they thought they was little risk.

    The financial industry is like a truss bridge. It can withstand a certain amount of support structures being weakened before it collapses, and the collapse will most likely be sudden. Through over-engineering, some bridges can withstand a lot of damage before they collapse, and that gives the impression that they can take a lot more.

    In the end, the investment banking side will lose, and they will be regulated as tightly as G-S commercial banks. I prefer the G-S model. It accepts we need an investment finance industry, but we cannot let it collapse the commercial banking. The G-S firewall was not perfect, but it was better than what we have now.

    I predict that in the near future the investment banks will be yearning for the “good old days”, and most of those who design the straightjacket will eventually benefit from it. (See Barney Frank)

    At one time, I was an uber anarcho-capitalist, and I made Ayn Rand look like a socialist. At some point, I realized that the world will never work that way. Boeing did not intend to design a plane to kill people, but they did. Turkish builders did not intend to build buildings that would collapse during an earthquake, but they did.

    I am trying to get people to understand that you cannot regulate behaviour to be perfect, but @Drew needs to understand that regulations are needed. If @Drew refuses to find an acceptable solution, the other side will. Do you (or any sane person) really want ER Doctors from the backwoods of West Virginia regulating the financial industry?

  • Drew Link

    Tasty –

    Not blowing you off, but there is a lot there. Thanks for the thoughtful response. Just two points:

    I am not totally anti-regulation. I am just very jaded by experience. I believe that the one set of regulators who appear to have done a better job over the years are the airline regulators. They seem to be serious people. And they have results to show or it.

    I wouldn’t want steve near finance in any way shape or form. I presume he’s a fine doctor, but comments here show me he’s clueless on so many other things, particularly finance and investment. Worse, you can absolutely guarantee his comments will be straight out Polly Parroted off of Dem talking points.

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