Moved no doubt by North Korea’s most recent missile test, the editors of the Washington Post come out in favor of tighter sanctions against the country and those who are aiding it:
After waiting in vain for China to apply serious pressure to the Pyongyang regime following President Trump’s first meeting with Xi Jinping, the administration is readying sanctions against a number of Chinese companies and banks that do business with North Korea, a senior administration official said this week. A sanctions bill on its way through Congress mandates additional steps against North Korean shipping, countries that evade U.N. sanctions and those that employ the slave laborers whom the regime exports to other countries. Still-tougher measures are in a pending Senate bill developed by Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen.
If the administration aggressively and consistently exploits the new authorities — an open question, given the endless chaos in the White House and gaping personnel holes at the State Department — it might be able, over time, to cut off a substantial part of the flows of hard currency that last year allowed North Korea to increase its trade by nearly 5 percent and that financed $1.7 billion in imports from China in the first half of 2017.
That’s a remarkably mealy-mouthed and mostly incredible suggestion. The countries providing most of North Korea’s support are: China, Russia, Kuwait, Mongolia, Qatar, and UAE. Chinese banks are particularly problematic. China actually increased its coal sales to North Korea after North Korea’s last missile test despite statements to the contrary.
Could we apply effective sanctions against those countries? Yes. We could cut Chinese banks off from the U. S. banking system (and a lot of the rest of the world’s banks along with them). We could start moving to toss China out of the World Trade Organization (or exit it ourselves). They’ve never complied with the reforms to which they agreed when they were admitted and they never will. Will we? Not a chance. It’s less a case of “don’t wanna” than “can’t”.
So, what’s left? Either watchful waiting or war. I suggest the former.
Saddam Hussein proved that an otherwise seemingly rational person can be wildly delusional. His invasion of Kuwait was rational because nobody thought that the world would actually do anything substantial about it. He would get a ‘good talking to and sent to bed without supper’.
At the time, his believing he could withstand the US military was not irrational. With its record at the time, nobody knew how the US military would perform, and this included the US military despite its optimistic outlook.
By 2001, there was no doubt that the US military was the first, second, and third best military in the world, and it was probably entire the top ten. The idea that the US could decimate (hexamate – 6/10ths) his military in two weeks or much less was not questioned by any rational person.
And yet, he believed it.
N. Korea could not win against the existing US military. The same M-2 machine gun (.50 caliber) that cut down ‘hordes of charging Chinese soldiers’ is now accompanied by an array of more deadly weapons. The terrain is formidable, but it can be overcome.
I have no doubt that the latest Kim believes that he can win a war with the US, and his best chance would be a surprise attack.
The best US defense against this would be a surprise attack on him, and the much vaunted N. Korean artillery batteries would not last past the first ranging shell, if that long.
As a warmonger for me, any war is a good war, but it might not be good for the US.
For the U. S. to wage preventive war against North Korea, we should be prepared to kill 25 million people in the process. I don’t think we are.
What if we reach the conclusion, that, it’s gonna happen anyway?
This must not be true. Trump said he had a great meeting, a beautiful meeting with the Chinese and they are now working with us. Believe me!
Steve
Just as in the first Korean War, a new one would involve both China and Russia. In the first one, China beat us with a W W I (one) army and no navy or airforce. This time they bring a large, modern army, navy and air force. The Russians, who would likely be a junior partner do also. The American military of 2001 no longer exists. They would hammer us flat and drive us out of East Asia all the way back to Guam.
We’re just going to have to live with North Korean nukes and missiles.
That would be China’s and Russia’s reactions if we attacked North Korea. However, I don’t believe they would react that way if North Korea attacked us. If that were the case, they’d hold their peace when we counter-attacked because it’s exactly what they would do.
We’re just going to have to live with North Korean nukes and missiles.
Or die trying to.
The US could(has) live(d) with NK nukes; or even limited NK missile capability — it can’t live with repeated missile tests in American airspace.
By the way, the CCP and People’s army have very dim views of the Kim family. They remember the Chinese sacrifice in Korea and the “gratitude” they were given by 3 generations of the Kims; alliance with the Soviets, and then nuclear weapons. They won’t allow American troops at the Yalu, but they won’t send their troops to die for a member of the Kim family.
A world with N. Korea able to strike any US city with a nuclear armed ICBM will be interesting. During the Cold War, Russia had the ability to obliterate many more US cities than “the crazy fat kid” ever will.
Should we restart the school drills to prepare for a nuclear explosion? When there is no threat, preparing seems silly. Will today’s youth be taught to hold hands and sing Kumbaya while their eyeballs melt? Will the hipsters gentrifying the poor inner city neighborhoods decide that the poor people are a better target, and if so, will they move to the suburbs?