Both Gov. Pritzker and Mayor Lightfoot are in a lather about a spike of COVID-19 cases in Illinois. From the Illinois Department of Public Health, here’s a graph showing ICU bed utilization in the state that illustrates what they’re worrying about:
I’ve circled the recent bump in ICU bed utilization.
The only hypothesis I can come up with is they won’t be satisfied until the number of cases goes to zero. It is unlikely ever to go to zero.
I’m not sure why, but covidtracking shows the situation with hospitalization is more serious than that chart from department of public health.
Using their chart (https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/daily-cases-and-currently-hospitalized -> select Illanois), the number of currently hospitalized has gone from 1600 to 2400 since Oct 1. Given exponential spread (number of cases has gone from 2000 to 4000), if r0 is not driven under control quickly (like in the next week), the number of hospitalized could double or worse in a month or so.
It doesn’t look like much of a spike to me. Mass hysteria is now rampant. We are being panicked into mass lockdowns. Canada is considering mass house arrests, forced vaccinations, and even prison camps.
If we get another round of mass lockdowns, which seems likely, I don’t see how a great depression lasting years can be avoided. We have a real possibility of civilization suicide.
They show the same thing. It’s the scale that’s misleading. The graph I sampled was ICU bed utlization; covidtracking shows hospital bed utilization. You can check out IDPH’s reckoning of that here. How alarming it appears depends on the scale at which you look at it.
I’ve mentioned it before but there’s a great little book called “How to Lie With Statistics”. Picking the scale that demonstrates your view is one of the basic rules.
Again: what have Gov. Pritzker and Mayor Lightfoot not received that they demanded? Answer: nothing. They’ve miscalculated. Maybe the policies they’ve advocated have a sell-by date.
“They’ve miscalculated. Maybe the policies they’ve advocated have a sell-by date.”
Of course its politics. And NJ, NY lather, rinse repeat………
From what I can tell, the state has placed four out of eleven regions into some sort of lockdown solely because case-positivity has risen above eight percent (*) I don’t see that any of them have exceeded any of the metrics related to hospitalizations. Chicago has not exceeded the eight percent standard, so the Mayor is imposing restrictions to demonstrate the City’s virtue.
(*) More precisely, three consecutive days greater than or equal to 8% test positivity rate based on a seven day rolling average.
‘From what I can tell, the state has placed four out of eleven regions into some sort of lockdown solely because case-positivity has risen above eight percent’
Considering that even the manufacturers of the tests have little confidence in the accuracy of the results or how dangerous the ‘carriers’ are towards the rest of the populace, it’s obviously a case of selective science by statistical manipulating. It would be interesting to see how fast these lockdowns end if OMB wins however long the legal challenges go.
I think all of the mayors and governors are extrapolating the rise in Covid cases, and set policy to prevent that unwelcome outcome.
That’s their job. If you don’t like the policy, party on, you won’t be alone.
If we had the advantage of hindsight, we’d all have done things differently, and that’s true today. Fumbling blindly into the future’s fog with only the road behind as a guide.
Here in Colorado the governor just reinstated the ban on “personal gatherings” of 10 or more people with no more than 2 family households.
While I’ve been mostly supportive of how our state government has handled Covid, this is a really bizarre move, especially considering all the exceptions as it doesn’t apply to business, churches, and a host of other things. It’s basically limited to personal gatherings only like parties.
To me, this is stupid for two reasons:
– It’s unenforceable.
– The state Covid data clearly shows the current spike in cases is primarily coming from workplaces, education, healthcare, and jails – not “personal gatherings.” And all those things are exempted under this change.