If the Election Were Held Today…

While we wait to see what sort of bounce if any Hillary Clinton received from the Democratic National Convention, I thought it might be entertaining to check out Nate Silver’s “Now-cast” of the election, depicted in the map above.

As you can see, as things stand today Hillary Clinton is not holding the states Barack Obama carried in 2012, Donald Trump is carrying Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio with a chance of carrying Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

7 comments… add one
  • Modulo Myself Link

    If Hillary Clinton wins like that map says or with Ohio in her column Trump will refuse to concede and legitimacy will be a concrete problem. And nobody in the GOP will call him on it.

  • She already has legitimacy problems. A recent Associated Press-GfK found that only 6% of Americans think that Hillary Clinton is innocent of any wrongdoing in using her homebrew email server.

  • PD Shaw Link

    Silver believes Trump might have gotten a 3 to 4 point convention bounce, but that it’s hard to distinguish any bounce from the pre-existing trend. Her lead began to regularly erode starting around July 10 for about two weeks. (The FBI recommendation came out July 5th)

    Perhaps there is no R-convention bounce, and the e-mail resolution cost her five percentage points of her lead, as it played through for a couple of weeks. And there is no D- convention bounce either, just a point where the e-mail controversy stopped hurting her.

  • PD Shaw Link

    His adjusted poll average has 11.2% not picking any of those three.

  • PD Shaw Link

    I meant “unadjusted poll average.”

  • steve Link

    Could be a record number of people voting who don’t vote for either of the two. Nonetheless, the winner will declare they have a mandate.

    Steve

  • Declaring it doesn’t make it so and may in fact further diminish her or his legitimacy.

    There is a tried and true strategy for dealing with such circumstances: a national unity government. Can you honestly see either of the major party candidates putting together a national unity government?

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