How The Economist Sees Russia’s War Against Ukraine

The editors of The Economist summarize the war in Ukraine to date:

Ukraine won the short war. Mobile and resourceful, its troops inflicted terrible losses and confounded Russian plans to take Kyiv. Now comes the long war. It will drain weapons, lives and money until one side loses the will to fight on. So far, this is a war that Russia is winning.

Here’s their assessment of Putin’s plans:

You can see where Mr Putin is heading. He will take as much of Ukraine as he can, declare victory and then call on Western nations to impose his terms on Ukraine. In exchange, he will spare the rest of the world from ruin, hunger, cold and the threat of nuclear Armageddon.

and here’s what they propose for Ukraine to win the war:

The best way to prevent the next war is to defeat him in this one. Leaders need to explain to their people that they are not only defending an abstract principle in Ukraine, but also their most fundamental interest: their own security. The eu needs to shore up its energy markets so that they do not fracture next winter. Ukraine must have more weapons. The risk of escalation today is real, but if a bad peace is forced on Ukraine Mr Putin’s nuclear threats will not stop. They will only become more dangerous, especially if Russia’s conventional forces are at a disadvantage.

In the long war ordinary Russians will suffer and Ukrainians endure unspeakable pain for Mr Putin’s vanity. To prevail means marshalling resources and shoring up Ukraine as a viable, sovereign, Western-leaning country—an outcome that its defiant people crave. Ukraine and its backers have the men, money and materiel to overcome Mr Putin. Do they all have the will?

I don’t know the answers to any of the questions they raise and I won’t pretend to know what Putin is thinking. 10% of Ukraine’s population has already fled the country (including to Russia). I’m skeptical that NATO support for Ukraine means a great deal without less phlegmatic support from Germany, the largest economy among NATO members other than that of the United States. They’ve pledged more support. Let’s see if they follow through or they’re just hoping it will all end without costing them anything.

6 comments… add one
  • Andy Link

    Russian war goals are a key unknown. Their initial goals were obviously not achievable.

    War is a political activity for political ends. Taking “ as much of Ukraine as he can, declare victory” is not a political goal.

  • Persevere doesn’t sound like much of a plan of action to me, either.

  • bob sykes Link

    The Economist, like all Western media, is completely ignorant about what is going on. Whatever the initial move towards Kiev was about, we may never know. But Russia is plainly, unarguably winning this war. The war for the Donbas is almost over. It looks like Kharkiv and Kherson are next.

    Tom Longo at “Gold Goats ‘N Guns” has a long essay describing the realities in Ukraine, and he includes a link to Alex Mercouris at “The Duran”:

    https://tomluongo.me/2022/06/29/the-g-7-squawks-but-theyve-already-lost-the-war-against-russia/

    The Western media are not doing any investigative reporting in Ukraine, they are merely accepting Kiev’s propaganda at face value.

    Ukraine’s initial regular army of some 200,000 troops is largely destroyed. A great deal of the Territorial reserve forces, initially 450,000, has also sustained heavy casualties. Half its armor and artillery are destroyed or captured. Its air force has been decimated. Right now Ukraine is drafting middle age men, teenage boys, and women. The draftees are given one week’s orientation and sent to the front.

    Ukraine’s manpower shortage is exacerbated by the very large population loss it suffered, going from 45 million at independence to as little as 25 million today. Much of the loss occurred at independence, as large numbers of young people, especially men, decamped for the EU. Another large population loss occurred after the coup, where again large numbers went to the EU and to the Russian federation. Crimea and Donbas seceded. The onset of the war has led to almost 7 million people, mostly young, fleeing to the EU.

    The situation is so bad that Kiev is thinking about having the EU arrest military age Ukrainian men in their territories, and deporting them back to Ukraine for conscription.

    The Economist is among those publications, essentially all the Western media, and the entire Western leadership, that thinks Russia has a small economy. They are hopelessly deluded. The Russia economy is most likely twice as big as Germany’s, which would be about 40% of ours. Its manufacturing sector is likely larger than ours; it is most certainly more comprehensive and diverse. Russia manufactures everything it needs in house.

    Mercouris points out that Russia’s military manufacturing capacity is larger than NATO’s. In any industrial war, like the one in Ukraine, Russia wins, and NATO loses. Russia might not have the manpower to conquer Western Europe, but it certainly can seize and hold everything up to the German and Austrian borders, a line from Danzig to Trieste.

    The US/EU sanctions are not supported by any country outside the alliance, and the sanctions are wrecking the Western economies. A good deal of European industry, especially German industry, will have to shut down this summer and fall due to fuel shortages. It is possible there will be food shortages in Europe. When winter comes, people will die of exposure. None of that will happen in energy-rich, foo-rich Russia.

    There is also the social problem. Both the US and EU have enormous alien populations, mostly illegals. Every major city, in fact almost every city, in Europe and North America has no go zones controlled by criminals. There are literally millions, perhaps tens of millions, of homeless people in the US/EU. There are huge irreconcilable political differences throughout the US/EU. Again, this is not a problem is Russia. Some 70 yo 80% of all Russians support Putin and the war, which they regard to be an existential, Second Great Patriotic War.

    All the governments in North American and Europe are bankrupt. Russia runs trade, current account, and budget surpluses.

    And just off-stage, there is China, Russia’s ally, and industrial giant.

    The West is in decline. The BRICs are gaining allies and are ascending.

  • steve Link

    Russian goals were not known but it seems clear they intended to take over eastern Ukraine at least as far as Kiev. Given Putin’s statements about rebuilding Russian empire I assume he wants all of Ukraine and we dont know that for sure, but it is enough to suspect that the Economist is correct. If there is a peace negotiation and Russia gets the part of Ukraine they have already occupied it seems highly likely they go for more later, and probably with a similar approach. Lies about how they would be protecting the rest of Ukraine and they are all really Russians anyway.

    Steve

  • Grey Shambler Link

    He , Putin has obviously concluded the treaties and promises of the West are empty.
    He scorns us.
    If we aren’t ready to die for it we will lose the freedom we take for granted. That is the harshest truth and must be central in western leaders publicly stated policy. And very, very soon.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    4 months on; and the West still doesn’t know what Russia’s goals are? Sun Tzu’s quote applies.

    TBH; Putin stated goals on Feb 23; they maybe not his only wishes; but unless he is deceiving the Russian public; other countries he needs including BRICS, CSTO, and Belarus, and a big part of the Russian decision making apparatus; those stated goals are the goals. What I see is the goals haven’t changed; but how Putin is trying to achieve them has.

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