You might find this article from Lisa Du and Grace Huang at Bloomberg as interesting as I did. The article considers how Japan managed to avoid a bloodbath from COVID-19 without mass testing or a lockdown. The answer is that nobody knows:
Analyzing just how Japan defied the odds and contained the virus while disregarding the playbook used by other successful countries has become a national conversation. Only one thing is agreed upon: that there was no silver bullet, no one factor that made the difference.
“Just by looking at death numbers, you can say Japan was successful,†said Mikihito Tanaka, a professor at Waseda University specializing in science communication, and a member of a public advisory group of experts on the virus. “But even experts don’t know the reason.â€
One widely shared list assembled 43 possible reasons cited in media reports, ranging from a culture of mask-wearing and a famously low obesity rate to the relatively early decision to close schools. Among the more fanciful suggestions include a claim Japanese speakers emit fewer potentially virus-laden droplets when talking compared to other languages.
Experts consulted by Bloomberg News also suggested a myriad of factors that contributed to the outcome, and none could point to a singular policy package that could be replicated in other countries.
There also was no national plan.
My guess is that it was due to some combination of a less contagious, less lethal variant of the virus making its way to Japan, cultural cleanliness and social distancing, and pre-existing antibodies to SARS-CoV.
Looks like lockdown lite, plus the things you list. Lots of mask wearing also.
“In declaring a nationwide state of emergency on April 16, Mr. Abe asked businesses to close or reduce hours voluntarily and white-collar workers to work from home. People were told to avoid close contact with others in crowded, confined spaces. Many restaurants remained open but closed by 8 p.m. The voluntary request was enough to shut down shopping districts and sharply reduce traffic in urban centers, and soon the surge of infections ebbed. Mr. Abe also called in late February for schools to close and major sporting and cultural events to be suspended.”
Steve
Virus “A” heading one way and virus “B” heading another seems odd. But I can see pre-existing antibodies.
There is so much we don’t know. Only that predictions have been pitiful.
So it looks likely that I did indeed have corona. My wife had a short spell – headache, muscle ache, light fever, a bit of a cough; but no shortness of breath. Being the house hypochondriac she demanded an antibody test, unlike me who took the docs advice to just move on as it clearly was not spiraling into trouble. (I don’t know what the tracing is all about – looks like a fools errand) Anyway, she tested positive. So it would be odd if I didn’t have same.
A nothingburger. A big, fat nothingburger. This is not to discount those seriously infected, but they are what?, a tiny percentage of the overall population. And the death count stats continue to show that this has been, overwhelmingly, a nursing home event. We should have protected them first and foremost. FL did, NY did not. Look at the numbers.
Imagine if my prescription had been followed?
Except that DNA analysis has confirmed that one strain of the virus entered the U. S. from China while another strain entered via Europe. That the European strain was more contagious or deadly has been suggested but not proven. That could just be rationalization.
A good place to look for possible causes is to compare the mortality/prevalence rates for influenza between Japan, South Korea and other OECD countries.
If the same patterns emerge as for coronavirus — East Asia << Eastern Europe << Germany << Western Europe / US; that strengthens the case for masks, cultural cleanliness.
If no pattern emerges — that strengthens the case for random factors like mutations and pre-existing antibodies.
Linked numbers suggest that flu infections dropped when Japan took up lockdown lite. Any direct comparison of US and Japan flu rates should account for Japan stopping flu vaccination for children. (I think that is still in effect.) Their mortality rates for older people increased when they did that. (Dont remember how much.)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-sees-silver-lining-to-coronavirus-as-flu-cases-drop-11583073526
Steve