Three points to make here:
- President Trump was “underwater” (disapproval rating higher than his approval rating) for nearly his entire presidency
- It’s not impossible to recover from this sharp a decline in approval/increase in disapproval. Obama accomplished it several times in the course of his presidency. It is, however, unusual to recover the earlier high approval rating.
- This is a significant decline. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding himself or herself.
President Biden needs to do some course correction quick.
OTOH, Biden has significant room to move up (eventually).
Inside the polling numbers show Biden continues to have 90% approval from Democratic voters. If that is true, his approval floor will be like Trump’s ceiling (45%).
Independents are much more open to Biden then they were to Trump, so when things turn around (especially COVID), but also inflation, foreign affairs (how many withdrawals to screw up could Biden have) — his poll ratings should go up.
My current take is Biden’s honeymoon is over, but it isn’t dire yet.
He was above 52 until about July 21st. I’m too lazy to look up what might have happened then, but it declined steadily after that. Clearly, the recent very steep drop-off is Afghanistan-related and probably won’t last.
Delta happened. July 27th was when the CDC recommended masks again.
Its not the masks or the vaccine mandates that are unpopular. Its that another wave is here, and its bad enough for all the unpopular restrictions to come back.
Agree that it is plausible the Afghanistan drop is a mirror of the Bin Laden bounce Obama enjoyed — something that wore off within a month. As long as nothing horrific happens with the withdrawal…