Australian Crispin Rovere articulates the case that war with North Korea is inevitable at RealClearDefense:
This piece focuses on the reasons why deterrence is destined for failure and war on the peninsula is increasingly inevitable. A future piece will discuss the ethics of embarking on second Korean war (and those of advocating it).
There’s one argument that goes unmentioned in his piece. Apparently, the Chinese are convinced that North Korea is so fragile that the only future remotely acceptable to them is maintenance of the teetering status quo. Any step on their part sufficient to stop the Kim regime in its headlong rush to nuclear annihilation will lead to the collapse of the regime accompanied by a stream of refugees, the North being absorbed into the South, or both.
My own view is that the only way to avoid a genuinely catastrophic war for all parties is through strategic patience in the hope that either the Chinese will see the folly of their own position or the North Koreans will make a move that the Chinese will recognize demands an answer from the United States. I see few signs that we are prudent enough to take that course.
Hard to understand the Chinese’ position on refugees. We need to send in the likes of Luis Gutierrez to get them thinkin’ right. Don’t they know the NORKS are just Dreamers, and diversity is our strength?
I can’t imagine the Chinese don’t know full well that if NK “makes a move” of a certain type the US will have to respond. They also know that such a move would bypass even DEFCON 1 and go direct to push the button. With NK’s ability to kill millions of South Koreans in a matter of hours there is no other choice. That’s the very reason this is such a dangerous situation. If that happens the Chinese end up with refugees anyway – unless they build a wall – so, to me, their inaction just reflects the fact that they don’t believe the US is serious, and why would they after US has shown itself to be unserious for so many years. Talk about a strategic error.
Obvious to me the Trump team and the N.K.s believe war is inevitable, with both sides trying to badger the other into the first move.
What I don’t understand is why the South Koreans, especially in Seoul, are not on the move.