Germany’s Conundrum

In his Wall Street Journal column Walter Russell Mead muses on the predicament in which Germany finds itself:

As recently as 2020, almost the entire world agreed with the smug German self-assessment that Germany had the world’s most successful economic model, was embarking on the most ambitious—and largely successful—climate initiative in the world, and had perfected a values-based foreign policy that ensured German security and international popularity at extremely low cost.

None of this was true. The German economic model was based on unrealistic assumptions about world politics and is unlikely to survive the current turmoil. German energy policy is a chaotic mess, a shining example to the rest of the world of what not to do. Germany’s reputation for a values-based foreign policy has been severely dented by Berlin’s waffling over aid to Ukraine. And German security experts are coming to terms with a deeply unwelcome truth: Confronted with an aggressive Russia, Germany, like Europe generally, is utterly reliant on the U.S. for its security.

Can you guess who did not agree with “the smug German self-assessment” he describes? Yes, that would be me. I made my assessment by speaking with actual Germans in Germany and several things were always obvious to me:

  • German policies were and always have been guided by German national interest.
  • One of those policies continues to be what it has been for 150 years—German domination of Europe.
  • Those policies are deeply mercantilist, relying on running a substantial trade surplus.
  • The Germans are deeply resentful of depending on the U. S. for security but they’re more than willing to let us keep paying to defend them as long as we’re willing to do it.
  • Germany’s relationship with China was contingent on running a substantial trade surplus with it.

I also find Germany’s energy policies completely baffling. It is NIMBYism run riot—apparently, they believe that carbon emissions in China stay in China and clear-cutting old growth Brazilian forests to make compressed wood pellets to burn in German stoves is carbon neutral.

Now all of their assumptions are falling apart at once. The very large trade surplus they ran for so long with China has largely evaporated. It was predicated on Germans building factories in China and then on the Chinese building their own factories using German machine tools. Now the Chinese are making their own machine tools and in some years Germany actually runs a trade deficit with China. Their gamble on relying on Russian oil and gas has lost which puts their energy policy in a shambles I think they’re trying to straddle in the hopes that the problems with Russia will evaporate before Germany actually needs to spend anything.

Not only do the Germans continue to be dependent on the U. S. for security but they are coming face-to-face with being economically dependent on the U. S. and dependent on the U. S. for energy as well. I’m not sure how it’s all going to work out.

3 comments… add one
  • Drew Link

    “Can you guess who did not agree with “the smug German self-assessment” he describes? Yes, that would be me.”

    You and Donald Trump.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    To be fair to the Germans. The U.S had different but equally consequential beliefs about China (how to make money) and Russia (that it was weak).

    Look at the security relationship from the US side. With the announcement that NATO would place 300,000 troops on high readiness to fight in Eastern Europe (from 40,000!) and Biden announcing redeployment of troops/equipment into Europe; it looks like the US is “pivoting to Europe”. The question left unanswered; who’s going to pony 250,000 troops and their equipment, who’s going to pay for it; and who is likely to be most at risk if things ever get hot with the Russians.

  • That reminds me of the stories from World War II that, towards the end of the war, Hitler began ordering units that had already been destroyed into battle.

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