Friedman’s Comments on War With China

In the wake of another leaked (or “leaked”) memo from a general, George Friedman remarks on the prospect of war with China:

I have been on record as saying China’s economic and political vulnerabilities make such a conflict unlikely, but when a four-star general and one of the few politicians I actually respect go well out of their way to say something like this, I’m compelled to recheck my thinking. That the two are saying the same thing, moreover, suggests to me that someone in Washington has briefed them on the matter. Briefings are not the subject of random gossip.

concluding

I respect the general and the congressman, and obviously they have access to better intelligence than I do. But I find it hard to believe that China would plan a war so carelessly. Given the leak, a war could still be in the offing, but for China it would likely be short.

Perhaps I am reverting to bad habits. Answering my own questions with my old views is admittedly poor intelligence. Feel free to let me know which questions I didn’t pose and which answers were insufficient. I will happily pout and respond.

i wanted to comment on this observation of his:

Will the war be on land, in the air, at sea, or some combination of the three? The U.S. is not capable of waging a land war in China given its size and population. China can wage an air and naval war, but it would be doing so against a very capable enemy. Beijing’s advantage is that the homeland is secure. The U.S. has the same advantage, of course, but it has the added benefit of being able to draw deep into the Pacific and engage China far from home. In other words, the U.S. can to some degree determine where the war will be fought.

I think he’s leaving out an important theater of operations: space. Don’t ignore the possibility that we, the Chinese, or both of us will be trying and in all likelihood succeeding in taking out each others satellites.

I also think that

  1. we are absolutely, positively not prepared for war with China. Our economy would collapse almost immediately. The chaos would be immense.
  2. war with China would inevitably go nuclear. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the Chinese leadership thinks it could win a nuclear war. I don’t think it is possible to deter China.
3 comments… add one
  • bob sykes Link

    There will be no war over Taiwan, unless we, ourselves, start it. Considering the lunatics who run our government, that is entirely possible.

    Xi and the CPC have stated that their primary goal is raising the remaining 600 million Chinese peasants to international middle class standards. That will require a generation of peace. It would require an extraordinary provocation for China to go to war, but our Ruling Caste discovered Russia’s by diligent probing so they might find China’s, too.

    I think it extraordinary that the US routinely cancels treaties it finds temporarily inconvenient. We are down to one nuclear arms treaty with Russia, because the US cancelled all the others, starting with ABM.

    The clowns in Washington have now discarded the Shanghai Communiqué, regardless of what they say, and they no longer accept that Taiwan is part of China. Nixon agreed to that in order to separate China from Russia. But the regime in Washington cannot understand why we would want to do that.

  • The clowns in Washington have now discarded the Shanghai Communiqué,

    I think you misunderstand it. The passage in question was never a statement of U. S. policy. It was always an acknowledgement that it was the Chinese policy.

  • Andy Link

    “I respect the general and the congressman, and obviously they have access to better intelligence than I do. But I find it hard to believe that China would plan a war so carelessly. ”

    I find it hard to believe as well. Two years is a long time. Beyond the normal contingency planning that every country does, no country sets an invasion date that far in the future. So much about starting a major war is contingent and not compatible with long timetables. At most (and I’m quite skeptical of this), China might want to be prepared for a war with the US in two years’ time, which is altogether different.

    And Friedman brings up the obvious point about the character of the war. And there are political and military goals. Again, factors that are contingent. China isn’t going to go to war with the US for shits and giggles – it will only do so if it thinks it is in its vital interests or if it thinks it has no alternative. Beyond a desire to retake Taiwan, what source of conflict is there?

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