Here’s an interesting quote from scholar Stefan Auer in an interview at Chatham House:
I am seriously concerned by the growing gap between the EU’s capabilities and expectations. We are being told Ukrainians are fighting and dying for Europe, for the EU, so Ukraine must become a member of the EU. But the more I research, the more sceptical I become about the viability of that proposal.
Even before the war started, Ukraine did not measure up to expectations on the quality of governance needed for EU membership. So if the EU pursues its normal procedures in terms of enlargement there is no way Ukraine will become a full EU member within the next 10-20 years. But geopolitically Ukraine must become a member, so the EU must change to make that possible.
Another problem is that, from the perspectives of Germany and France, the EU needs to integrate further before enlargement can proceed, but there is no support for that. Poland does not support it and I do not think there would be much support for it in Ukraine either. When you examine Ukrainian debates about national sovereignty or the nature of their fight, yes they fight for Europe but they fight for Ukrainian independence. So, to imagine the Ukrainian preference would be for a ‘United States of Europe’ is utterly misguided.
Does NATO membership for Ukraine face similar obstacles?
