Escalation in Hong Kong

You may have missed it with the fixation of the media on impeachment but the situation in Hong Kong between the people of Hong Kong and the Chinese authorities is continuing to escalate. The Wall Street Journal reports:

For the first time during the four months of unrest, uniformed soldiers from the Hong Kong garrison of the People’s Liberation Army raised a yellow warning flag at nearby protesters, saying: “You are in breach of the law. You may be prosecuted.”

Tens of thousands poured into the streets Sunday, many wearing masks in defiance of a ban on them introduced Saturday under the emergency law. There were scenes of anarchy as some protesters set fires, smashed Chinese banks and subway stations, while police, outnumbered at many locations, fired volleys of tear gas and projectiles. A taxi driver was beaten bloody by a mob in another district after he rammed into a group of protesters.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam invoked the colonial-era law Friday to ban masks at public gatherings, saying it was necessary to deter protesters who posed a serious danger to Hong Kong. The full emergency law, however, gives her government sweeping powers that include allowing authorities to impose curfews, extend detentions, censor the internet and take control of all transport—moves her government has been reluctant to impose.

“I would expect to see such power to be invoked soon, if the masks ban does not stop the protests,” Steve Tsang, director of the School of Oriental and African Studies China Institute at the University of London. “There is now a sufficiently strongly motivated group among the protestors to fight whatever the government does to end the protests, so I see an escalation.”

If the wider application of those powers fails, Mr. Tsang said, the next step would be the deployment of China’s People’s Armed Police—a paramilitary force used across the mainland border for domestic security.

I’m actually surprised that deployment did not take place this week.

I emphatically reject the idea that the U. S. should take any actions the Chinese authorities would construe as material support of the demonstrators. The demonstrators have enough trouble as it is without our building a case that they’re treasonous.

Sadly, we won’t take the action we should—mobilizing our allies and trading partners to stop doing business with China. Let China return to its autarky. That’s where it’s headed anyway. The entire world except for China will be the better for it. Certainly no one can reasonably believe that economic dealings with China will necessarily lead to political liberalization in China and without that a growing China is a threat to its neighbors, the United States, and the whole world.

Yesterday I read an article that blamed George W. Bush for China’s abuse of its international agreements and there’s a kernel of truth there. He was blithely unconcerned when China violated the agreements into which it entered when it was admitted to the World Trade Organization. But it wasn’t just Bush. It was every president since Nixon and after Bush except, perhaps, Trump.

5 comments… add one
  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    If the Chinese government keeps going down this path; the ripples will not end in HK.

    The Taiwan elections are in Jan.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    Biden’s spent more time with Xi than anybody, knows how to appease him. Maybe he can get them to slow the pace of hegemony.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    I should elaborate on Taiwan.

    Taiwan’s current President is from the pro-independence party; but she very position on China and reunification is very moderate (for her party).

    A violent incident in HK could pressure her to take a less moderate stance (firmly rejecting reunification forever).

    And such an incident would win her the election.

    The Chinese government would in turn need to respond; a la black ops like Crimea?

    And once it starts, the escalation cycle won’t stop. TSMC is in Taiwan; no access to TSMC, no chips for Huawei, that’s death to China’s modernization dream. On the other hand, if the US let’s China take TSMC — no chips for Apple, Qualcomm, AMD, Nvidia, and the US would be very disrupted.

    Hope people in DC are thinking through the what if’s.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    And I will repeat my suggestions on how to diffuse the crisis.

    China’s government should meet one of the suggestions of the protesters — a commission of inquiry, with a broad scope to investigate and propose remedies to the economic and political maladies afflicting HK.

    The Chinese government should also replace Carrie Lam with someone with a background in politics instead of the civil service — and given a free hand from Beijing bureaucracy to carry out reforms. If Beijing is paranoid, split the Chief Executive into 2 positions. The first position is in charge of “hard power” (the police, the courts) and is responsible solely to Beijing. While the other position is in charge of “soft power” (finance, economic development) and has room to experiment.

    Of course all of this goes against the ethos of the CCP chairman…

  • I think your plan is reasonable but I doubt it will be implemented for the reason you give.

    One observation: both police power and economic power are hard power. “Hard power” does not just mean “with guns”. Soft power would be something like if the people of Hong Kong aspired to the goals of the mainland for them.

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