Economic Indicator

by Dave Schuler on December 3, 2012

If my time record is any gauge whatever, there’s a mini-recovery in progress right now. I’ve been busier for the last four days than in any comparable period in years. Yes, I work weekends.

On the other hand, historically, my business has tended to be counter-cyclical. I’m a bit like Nanny McPhee—when you don’t want me but need me, I must stay. When you want me and don’t need me, then I have to go.

{ 45 comments… read them below or add one }

Drew December 3, 2012 at 3:59 pm

“If my time record is any gauge whatever,……”

Lets hope. However, and admittedly this is entirely anecdotal,…..at a dinner this past weekend a high producing Oracle type reported that CIO’s are cancelling projects right and left as their CFO’s, CEO’s and Boards start hunkering down.

And a transaction type reports a monstrous pre-2013 backlog of change of control transactions……….which will mean less cap gains income than visualized.

And, of course, I’m preparing to meet with my financial advisor to best beat the looming tax hike.

Did they say soaking the rich will run the government for 14 days? Try 9……………..

michael reynolds December 3, 2012 at 4:42 pm

Yeah, Drew, you and Papa John’s CEO. Oh, wait…

Many in the media reported that I said Papa John’s is going to close stores and cut jobs because of Obamacare. I never said that. The fact is we are going to open over hundreds of stores this year and next and increase employment by over 5,000 jobs worldwide. And, we have no plans to cut team hours as a result of the Affordable Care Act.

Clearly there was some misunderstanding somewhere.

And Warren Buffett seems to think loud-mouthed Republican threats are b.s. I think he’s right. A lot of posturing and self-pity. To be followed by a sheepish, “Clearly there was some misunderstanding.”

Drew December 3, 2012 at 5:26 pm

You jest keep tellin’ yerself that, Mikey…..

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 5:58 pm

All I know is I’m doing my part to boost consumer spending. A $12.95, a fake sherpa throw from Walmart did wonders for the trip home on my feisty white steed.

I drove from Terrell, TX, to Natchitoches, LA, this time.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:07 pm

Drew, hon, you’re such a bore.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:10 pm

“I don’t like you, and Ima take my toys and go home!”

Drew December 3, 2012 at 6:28 pm

Janis

I’m sorry I bore you, but I’m the only one with a real understanding of finance and investment, and a real grasp of what it takes to make businesses prosper and employ.

Others here obviously simply have an infantile objective to “stick it to the man.” I guess we can now throw you into that trash heap.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:34 pm

Oh, bullshit, Drew. You just make the same tired comments everyday.

The big boys are gonna make a lot of noise, then do what it takes to make some money. That’s what they do.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:38 pm

If not, then smaller , more nimble firms are gonna pounce and take their market share away.

Isn’t that what’s called “creative destruction”?

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:47 pm

Drew, my FIL took a $6 mil bank and turned it into a $250 mil bank. I do know a little about finance.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:48 pm

And he didn’t even have a house in Arizona.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:50 pm

A truly fine man.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:52 pm

He didn’t go to Chicago Business School.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 6:57 pm

Michael and Katherine make money out of thin air.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 7:01 pm

Do you come from Mamou?

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 7:06 pm

I keep telling these people not to f**k with me. I even wear black cowboy boots with heavy heels and sharp toes, and they still want to talk down to me.

I just want to get along.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 7:15 pm

My brother picked up a couple of great Spanish classical guitar CDs that we listened to on the drive home. The tunes were familiar, but I’ll give you the names when I talk to my brother again. One has Rodrigo’s concertos, which are beautiful.

michael reynolds December 3, 2012 at 7:23 pm

Drew:

I don’t need to tell myself, I’ve got Warren Buffett telling me:

SUPPOSE that an investor you admire and trust comes to you with an investment idea. “This is a good one,” he says enthusiastically. “I’m in it, and I think you should be, too.”

Would your reply possibly be this? “Well, it all depends on what my tax rate will be on the gain you’re saying we’re going to make. If the taxes are too high, I would rather leave the money in my savings account, earning a quarter of 1 percent.” Only in Grover Norquist’s imagination does such a response exist.

As for this:

I’m the only one with a real understanding of finance and investment, and a real grasp of what it takes to make businesses prosper and employ.

What a load of bull. Do you know more than Warren? Because I’m going to guess he could buy you with the loose change under his sofa cushions. And while we’re at it, Dave also runs a business, and is evidently rather good at it. And so do I. (Surprise!) 23 years in business, generating something like 150-200 million in gross sales, (despite taking 5 years off) with never a losing year. I also started up a political media firm, promptly made a deal with the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and was immediately profitable. (Bored, but profitable.) And I’m getting ready to start a book packaging company that will employ a half dozen people to start and will be profitable from day one. Come to think of it, I did book packaging before and turned an 80% profit.

So, sorry, Drew, but you ain’t the Oracle of Omaha. And despite being innumerate and just a lowly scribe without so much as a country club membership, I also make a healthy living in an exceedingly competitive field.

You know, if you would cut the bargain basement Romney act with the whole Businessman Knows Best schtick, people might actually listen to you. No one worships businessmen anymore. Not since 2008. And definitely not since November 6, 2012. The argument from authority wherein you’re the authority? Yeah, that’s over now. Gordon Gecko lies a mouldering in the grave. Or riding rollercoasters at Disneyland.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 7:35 pm

Have you ever read Mark Cuban, Drew? What a Yahoo.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm

So quit being a snotwad, and help us figure out how to get things rolling again.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 8:46 pm

If you want a coup de grace, FIL was on the President’s Council after the S &L crisis.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 8:48 pm

Get it?

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 8:57 pm

So who wants to go two-steppin’?

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 9:05 pm

Skies in Texas are real big.

michael reynolds December 3, 2012 at 9:17 pm

Janis:

How you doing, kid?

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 9:21 pm

I’ll be okay. I picked up some bath salts at Walmart today. I’m a little sore.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 9:49 pm

I have another community memorial service on Thursday. They say it’s healing. Whatev.

Janis Gore December 3, 2012 at 10:05 pm

I have received Antifragile from Amazon.

steve December 3, 2012 at 11:11 pm

“but I’m the only one with a real understanding of finance and investment, and a real grasp of what it takes to make businesses prosper and employ.”

From the class that gave us the subprime crisis. Who would have ever guessed that housing prices could go down? From the group that has seen their income rocket, while not creating those jobs they are supposed to be creating. You may or may not know how to make an individual business succeed, but that has little relevance to making an economy work, and as a whole, your investor class has little credibility when judgment is required.

Steve

steve December 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm

Back on topic, car sales were way up. Highway volume is up in our area. It is taking me longer to get places due to traffic, which had not been a problem for a while.

Steve

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 5:55 am

Something I can’t say I’m proud of, I did have a seven-year affair with a married man who had retired from the board of directors of Republic National Bank in Dallas.

My husband knew about it. That started in an art class way back in my 20s. About the time I was using Dave’s word processing program.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 6:08 am

Corporate counsel.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 7:17 am

But I didn’t go to Chicago Business School, no. Can’t know a damned thing, right?

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 7:25 am

A is sort of amazed that at 86, he’s selling life drawings through an art dealer. His lovely wife of 60-some-odd years is getting a little dodgy in her mind. That’s a terrible shame. I really, really like her.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 8:15 am

Drew, where are you?

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 9:02 am

Lord, I wish people wouldn’t piss me off.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 9:27 am

Where are you again, steve?

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 9:35 am

No, I’m wondering about the car sales. People around here seem to be doing fine in that area.

steve December 4, 2012 at 12:13 pm

Pennsylvania.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 2:20 pm

A’s wife L was a charming actress, and something of a Shakespeare scholar. An absolutely faithful wife.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 2:28 pm

Ahem. I invited her to drinks at the Knox Street Pub. Don’t look for it, it’s been replaced by a Pottery Barn or something like it.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 2:34 pm

Maybe Crate & Barrel.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 2:47 pm

Men have some tacky impulses.

Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Janis Gore December 4, 2012 at 3:10 pm

Dolly Parton:

http://youtu.be/OCZYAeHrBEU

Isn’t she a great musician?

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